Chiefs

This is going to be less about the nuts and bolts of the game and more about the decision made to go for it on 4th down instead of kicking a field goal. Because a similar mentality was at work with Belichick in New England, I’m going to combine the two events into one post.

First, let’s get the basics out of the way. The Chiefs won for the 4th time in the last 34 games. Yipee. Maybe they won’t be the worst team in the NFL this year. Maybe they aren’t even the worst team in their division. They have beaten Oakland seven consecutive times … at Oakland. Their winning margins have been 7, 7, 6, 11, 2, 7 and 6 – just enough.

LJ standing on the sidelinesEveryone knows the LJ story, so no need to repeat it here. I was happy (if not surprised) to see that Johnson was permanently removed from the team. I will be even happier if some other team (sucker) picks him up and eats his salary. Unfortunately, I can’t imagine that happening. Odds are he’ll land somewhere in free agency with a drastically lower pay base, but I think the Chiefs will have to eat the balance – disclaimer (I’m not a salary guy). I have written three times about Larry Johnson on this blog and none of it positive.

Chiefs FootballI just watched Jack Harry go ballistic on Pioli and Haley. Talk about a rant! It’s not that I disagreed with his sentiment – no improvement, bye week was worthless, no team identity, blah, blah, blah. Of course he is right about all that. And, I suppose if you are going to rant, you have to direct it at someone. Who’s a better target than the GM and the coach? It was entertaining, but he overstated at least one thing.

Getting hurt isn't ALL that bad.This is the second reader entry on UFR. Jonathan Tucker did a nice story on Greinke vs Sabes a couple weeks ago. This time Jason Lisk presents a compelling argument that Cassel needs to increase his odds of being intercepted because the benefits of taking that risk outweigh the disadvantages. My only added thought on this is that QB’s rarely get hurt throwing interceptions, but they sure do suffer physically for taking sacks. Anyway, this is a very good piece. Thanks Jason!

2009 + Chiefs = Sad SacksThere are good sacks (when the Chiefs defense gets them). There are bad sacks (when Cassel is the victim). And, there are sad sacks – like those in the picture. I suspect if not for the fact that there are other abysmal teams - Washington, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit, Oakland, etc, we would already be seeing some used Price Chopper sacks at Arrowhead. But, sad sacks are just for visual entertainment. The focus of this discussion is the good and bad.

The biggest problem with Larry Johnson’s tweets was the fact that he was tweeting in the first place. I’m not going to try to hide my general disdain for the medium. I’m a person who likes analysis, thought, context, history, informed debate. Tweeting or twittering - or whatever it is called - is the antithesis of what I do, what UFR does and what I think society should be about. I realize some of my colleagues use it and bully for them. But, you will never see me tweet as long as I live… and that’s an understatement.

Divisional DisasterNo matter how much lipstick you put on it… I know you were wondering when the last time the Chiefs lost at home by 30 points. If you weren’t wondering, you probably should have been. There has only been one other time in the club’s 50 year history when they lost by that much at home. But, the next question to ask is when was the last time they lost by anywhere near that much at home to a team with a losing record. You can probably see where I’m heading with this.

Dustin ColquittYesterday, in Part I, I set the table for my argument that Dustin Colquitt is the best punter in the NFL this season. I originally planned all this information in a single post, but ultimately, I realized it was too important to make sure the reader understood the whole “gross yardage” issue. Besides, Colquitt deserves to be more than a footnote. So, this post is dedicated to the Chiefs best player.

To Jinx or not to JinxI’ve been a Chiefs fan for a long time – even back when they used to win a lot – even when they used to win in the playoffs. I used to wear Chiefs’ clothing on Sunday and… doggoneit… I was proud of it. In fact, I had a red Chiefs shirt that I wore only for playoff games. Initially, it was reasonably good luck (ok, I don’t believe in it, but work with me here). In 1995, KC was 13-3 and lost in the first round. In 1997, they were 13-3 and lost in the first round. In 2003, they were 13-3 and lost in the first round. When that happened for the third time, I recall ripping off the shirt and swearing I would never wear it again. I hadn’t… until Sunday.

No matter how hard you try, you will fail.As you may know, the Chiefs are not the only 0-5 team. The three others are St. Louis, Tennessee and Tampa Bay. Since there are four teams in a division, this seems like the perfect time to introduce the NFL’s Futility Division. Naturally, they don’t all play each other twice in a season, but from this point on, I will refer (at least occasionally) to the Futility Division. Maybe the Chiefs can win this one - at least. Of course, if there is a division you want to finish last in, this may actually be it.

It's all about YARDAGEOk, they’ve lost 28 of 30. We all know that. They have lost 9 in a row. We all know that too. If you have paid the ludicrous ticket prices the last two years, you certainly know they have also lost 9 in a row at home. They are horrible on offense and horrible on defense. What don’t we know? I think it is time to introduce my methodology for looking at how they REALLY did in the game – not just the score.

Not all turnovers are the same.The purpose of this exercise is not to invent a new term. We all know what a turnover is in football. The purpose is to clarify something I said earlier in my review of the Ravens game and in my review of the Raiders game. I compared KC’s situation to two turnovers by Baltimore – including the blocked punt for a touchdown. Originally, I was going to give a brief explanation in the original post, but forgot. So, if I’m going to do an entire post on this issue, I’ll get into more depth.

The definition of insanity.As I believe I made quite clear last week, Kansas City was fortunate to only lose by 14 points to Baltimore considering the numbers. I also indicated fortune could just as easily fall for the opponent as for the Chiefs. Such was the case this week. Instead of two turnovers to zero for KC, it was two turnovers to zero against them. And, even though they had a big advantage in yardage (similar to Baltimore in week #1), they were unable to overcome their own ineptness.

The FAR better teamEveryone who thought the Chiefs played respectably on Sunday please raise your hand… Ok, you are all dismissed. Check in at the principle’s office for your summer school class schedule…. I don’t care that they scored 24 points. I don’t care that they were “in the game” until late. The facts are they were horrible on offense and horrible on defense. Now, if you want to add an interception return and special teams, maybe not so horrible. But, those are not repeatable and have little to do with what you can expect on a weekly basis. The next time the Chiefs opponent might get those same breaks. Instead of losing 38-24, we lose 52-10!

It could be worse. We could be Chiefs fans.Who doesn’t know that Kansas City’s offense averaged under 9 ppg in four games? Who isn’t aware that they scored only two offensive touchdowns during the preseason? Who hasn’t figured out that KC ranks #32 in exhibition scoring? If you didn’t know those things, you are either not a Chiefs fan or in denial. As for me, I can only wish I didn’t know them.

Honey, let's go shopping.I’m sure you heard the rumblings yesterday. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell reaffirmed the league’s blackout policy. As a result, the Chiefs could easily have a game or two blacked out later in the fall. Let’s say they are 2-10 when they host Buffalo on December 13th or 2-11 when they host Cleveland on December 20th. Let’s say it’s 80 bazillion degrees below zero and the wind chill is a couple bazillion lower than that. Who’s going to be going to Arrowhead? Not me!!! The NFL rule is that you have to have a sell-out (I think that technically means at least 95%) by noon on Thursday for a Sunday game in order to keep it from being zapped off the tube. An extra day may be allowed, but after that… you’re screwed.

What goes up...One of the first posts I did on UFR was a study showing how players who had 3,000+ yards in a two-season period drastically tailed off thereafter. This was simple stuff and King Carl should have taken the opportunity to trade him and get maximum value while he was hot. That’s water under the bridge, but surely was one of the major reasons Peterson was forced out… Now, it is time to look at what happens to running backs in LJ’s situation once they reach the age of 30.

Air HaleyWith Gailey out, that presumably means Haley is in. As a huge fan of offense, I applaud the move. Obviously, the offense has sucked in the preseason and there is no time like the present to improve it. Assuming Haley takes over and stays in that role, it's worth a reminder on what he contributes to the scoreboard.

Now THAT'S a knee problem!The rumor floating around the net tonight is that Cassel is out for 2-4 weeks. I know nothing – and I’m saying it just as emphatically as Sergeant Schultz. Of course, he really did know something – and that’s the difference between us. I’m the last sports person in America to care whether I’m the first or the one millionth to hear about something. The difference is probably only a matter of hours. That's a blip as far as I'm concerned. Since I don’t “break” news, the whole rabid attempt at being first is all rather boring to me. Having said that, I am the first person in America to want to be the first to analyze it. So, assuming “it” is true…

My son, the future coach.I have to admit that on my way into the office from just south of Oklahoma, I usually listen to one (or both) of the sports talk radio stations. Before the blog (which is coming up on the one year birthday), I can honestly say the total time I listened to them in my life was about 30 seconds. It’s hard to analyze a subject in depth (the way I like) on the dial. But, considering the built-in obstacles, they do a good job IMO. The reason I bring it up is that I will, occasionally, get an idea from one of them and that’s why I listen. This post is the result of an idea I got last night on the way in.