Misc - NASCAR

Getting a leg up on the competitionMark Martin won his car number fifth race of the season and none bigger than this - the opening round of a 10-round heavy-weight fight. I wouldn't call it a knock out punch since 11 of the 12 Chase participants finished no worse than 17th (Edwards). Only Kahne (engine problems, 38th) is in deep trouble as we head into round #2 next week at Dover. So, although it’s still close you can’t ask for anything better than being seeded #1 coming into the fight and winning the first round.

The Wild and Wooley ChaseAs you know Stewart won the “regular season” by a couple hundred points. I wrote a formula to determine who would win the Chase and Stewart also “won” that. If that weren’t enough, by my individual race formula, Stewart should win the Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire Sunday. I’ve got Denny Hamlin coming in second. Of course, Mark Martin has the lead after the points reset, but that is miniscule and will evaporate upon finishing anywhere outside the top three – depending upon who finishes first and second, of course.

The CHASE RacersThe number one NASCAR story in my world is that 50 year old Mark Martin (my favorite driver) not only made the Chase, but is the new points leader by virtue of his four victories. And, if that wasn’t good enough news, Kyle Busch did not make the chase, missing out by eight measly points to Brian Vickers for the #12 spot (3,203 – 3,195). Despite a couple opportunities to take Vickers out, KyB (to his credit) resisted. Ten races left. Picking a winner is almost pure guesswork, but I’m going to try.

On the BubbleI pick Kyle Busch to win tonight’s race in Richmond – and by quite a bit over second place Tony Stewart. In nine previous races at this track, Busch has won once and finished in the top-5 on seven occasions! But, far more importantly than that, he’s in a dogfight for the last spot in the Chase. Knowing him, he won’t take any prisoners. Although I don’t like much about KyB, I will say that all’s fair in love and the final race before the Chase. So, if you are near him on the track, watch out!

The KidWell, my prediction was pretty close. I predicted Johnson to just beat out Edwards. The only problem was that Johnson finished #36 and Edwards #37. I wonder if I can convince anyone that is what I meant. JJ lead 17 laps before mechanical problems cost him. Edwards didn't let his broken foot get in the way, but there wasn't much he could do about a broken radiator.

This is exactly how I predict it to finish.Both Vegas and I pick Johnson to win this race, however I’m barely picking him over Edwards. Last week was the closest I had the top two picks (1.82 points of separation). Interestingly, this week is the new closest (1.45 points). Of course, that doesn’t exactly mean JJ will win by half a fender over CE at Atlanta, but it does mean that by my measurements, it’s just about too close to call. Edwards won this race last year and both have won at this track three times.

Mark Martin, Kyle BuschBy nipping Mark Martin at the Bristol 500, Kyle Busch tied Martin for the most victories this season (4). And, just as Martin and Vickers (who have won the most poles) are fighting to make the Chase, so are Martin and Busch. Apparently poles and wins don’t guarantee anything. It’s still about consistency. And, that’s a complaint I have. For multiple reasons, NASCAR should give more points for the win IMO.

Kurt & KyleVegas is picking Kyle Busch. So, the odds are good that one of the brothers are going to win Saturday night in Bristol. Since I don’t like Kyle and I hope he doesn’t make the Chase, I’m pulling for anyone else more than normal. This is the closest I have had so far in picking first and second (Matt Kenseth) – or even third (Kyle Busch) for that matter. The total separation between them is merely 1.82 points (234.42, 233.45, 232.60). The bigger story is...

Brian Vickers - the anti Kyle Busch!There are two races at several of the NASCAR tracks each season – Michigan is one of them. They are the Lifelock 400 and the Carfax 400. In almost identical situations, Jimmie Johnson led both going into the final two laps. In the first race, he ran out of gas and Mark Martin passed him to win. In the second, he ran out of gas and Brian Vickers passed him to win. FWIW, I picked Carl Edwards to win both races and he finished fourth in each.

Look for another one of these!Vegas is picking Jimmie Johnson to win the Carfax 400 in Michigan Sunday, but I pick JJ to finish 10th. Johnson has two top-5 finishes in his 15 races (13%) at this track. On the other hand, Carl Edwards has six in 10 (60%). Johnson has not won at the track while Edwards has won twice including last season. In the earlier race this year at Michigan (Lifelock 400), Johnson finished #22, Edwards #4. Sure, JJ is starting #4 while Edwards is #32, but that doesn't mean anything. CE's average start on this track is 19.4 and his average finish is sixth. Sure, JJ is #2 on the season and CE is #6, but so what? I’d take Edwards and and the points on this one all day long.

Two for the last Two Stewart and HamlinNo - not for Stewart, but for me. That makes the fifth time I’ve picked the winner this season, second in a row and third in the last five races. At this point, I’m above what an average picker would do. Five out of 22 is pretty good when there are 43 cars. But, the real way to determine it would be to look at the odds for those five races. Here they are.

The Lastest DepotVegas is picking Jimmie Johnson – the pole sitter. But, he’s never won a road course – being 0 for 15. For reference, he’s 43/261 on other tracks (16% winning percentage). The fact that Stewart is the point’s leader is only part of why he’s the favorite IMO. He’s also won four of the nine times he’s raced at Watkins Glen. Seems like a no-brainer to me that he would be favored.

Kyle Busch - The Sprint Cup lookIn watching the Nationwide races recently, I am continually amazed at how often Kyle Busch leads the race. In fact, he’s finished either first or second for the last nine races and has led at one time or another in every race since man landed on the moon – or at least it seems that way. Because of Busch’s recent problems in the Sprint series, it got me thinking about the difference in quality between the NASCAR and Nationwide.

On second thought, I picked Hamlin. Yeah, that’s the ticket. I picked him to win the race. I got a little excited because he’s been a thorn in my cotton picking side all season. As it turns out, he’s the fourth champion I have picked right out of 21 races, but my second correct pick in the last four. I’m not sure who I’m going to pick next week at the “Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen and a Partridge in a Pear Tree 221”, but I’m starting to feel my oats.

Will History Repeat Itself?I’ve been getting killed by Hamlin this season. The other time I picked him to win, he had engine problems on Lap #1. The times I don’t pick him to do well, he does. Anyway, we’ll see how accurate I am this time around. Hamlin is #6 in the points race and has been very good at Pocono in the past. In his seven races there, he has two wins and four top-5 finishes.

The Hallowed BricksJJ won at the Brickyard Sunday, holding off Mark Martin. It was Johnson’s third win in the last four seasons on this track and pulled him within one victory of Jeff Gordon in what is, arguably, the most famous racing venue in sports. It would have been really special if Martin had been able to pass him… and that brings up my sacrilegious criticism.