From time to time, I get in good-natured debates with sports fans that aren't as into the statistical side of athletics as I am. Since I'm not so much a math guy, but more of a word man and unadulterated sports fan in a beer-commerical sense, they wonder why I put so much stock into numbers. I have several stock replies to these exchanges. One of them is, "Because that's how I know when to be happy." Statistically, Missouri entered tonight's game with about a 40% chance to beat Memphis. All that means is that if the teams played about a million times, Memphis could be expected to win 600,000 times. That leaves 400,000 wins for Mizzou. With that in mind and having watched both of these teams extensively this year, it was with a heavy heart that I picked Memphis to win tonight 70-58. You know what? It has never felt so freaking good to be wrong.
As I type this, I've got my DVR paused with Mizzou up 57-38 with over 18 minutes to play. Uh, I think there is a good chance that they are going to exceed the 58 points I thought they'd get. Missouri has played its best game of the season so far. I hope I'm not getting ahead of myself because there is still 18 minutes to go and Memphis is awfully dangerous. But if things keep going as they are, I pledge to never doubt this Mizzou squad again. And as for Marcus Denmon's six-point spree at the end of the first half that was about the most unlikely burst in the history of basketball (a banked three-pointer and a 65-footer), don't expect any apologies from Mizzou fans. We are one nation of boosters that feels entitled to any breaks that come our way.