College Football - Big 12

Even 33 may not be enough.Last week I looked at the various teams in the Big 12 and tried to make sense out of who would be going to bowls. My most debatable opinion was probably that Kansas would not make a bowl if they lost to Texas and beat Missouri (if K-State also won over Nebraska and Texas A&M also won over Baylor). Well, KU lost to Texas as expected and A&M blew out Baylor. The fly in the ointment was K-State losing to Nebraska. That opens up another potential bowl bid for a Big 12 team and KU might get it if they beat MU. K-State, as everyone knows, has ended their season without qualifying for a bowl.

“In my post a few days ago, I indicated that I would take KSU against the line. At that time the Cats were favored by 2.5 points. If I would give up the points and take K-State at 2.5, imagine how much more I would take them when MU is favored by 1. That’s 3.5 free points if you haven’t put your money down yet...”

Certainly, the North situation became a lot less opaque with K-State beating Kansas. The fact that Nebraska upset Oklahoma simply means there are two teams battling it out instead of one. However, before I crown the CornCats North Champion, I should point out that it is still possible to have a five-way tie for the top. Let’s see what the BCS poll has to say about breaking that tie!

It’s hard to say whether clarity in the Big-12 North took a step forward or whether unclarity took a step back. Either way, it is (at best) slightly less murky than it was last week when I wrote this summary. Probably the one thing that pops out is that KU (the preseason favorite by many – including me) is extremely unlikely to win it. Here are the probabilities based on my calculations for each of the six teams for both outright champion as well as co-champion (tie breakers are too numerous to begin to calculate at this point).

Southern SuperiorityThe new division (12 teams) could be called either the Nouth or the Sorth – don’t care which. What is going on with the NvS is absurd and embarrassing. Worse, it is only going to get … worse. Even apart from the history of Oklahoma and Texas, all you have to do is look at where the South gets its players. Texas. Even the North gets a large number from Texas. But, how many of the best Lone Stars are going to want to travel to Kansas or Iowa or Colorado or Missouri or Nebraska to play? Relatively few – and certainly not the best of the bunch.

Even more convoluted

A long time ago in a far away place, three Big 12 North teams were ranked. “Why I remember way back in ‘09, back when I used to have to walk five miles to school in a blizzard carrying my little sister with holes in my shoes uphill (both ways). Yepper. I remember in early October of that year when Missourah was ranked 18, Nebrasky 21 and them thar Hawkers were number 15. They gotten themselves an 11-1 record between ‘em with their only blemish a one point loss on the road to a top team. Yes sir... those were the good old days…”

I have mixed feelings about the BCS. On the one hand, it is woefully inadequate in the modern world. It’s kind of like watching a black and white 12” television or driving a car without cruise control or not having a dishwasher. Being a member of society in 2009, you simply expect that whatever it is you are exposed to will be forced by some invisible hand to enter the 21st century. But, nooooo

ConvolutedNaturally, if you are an MU or KU fan, you aren’t too happy – mostly if you are a Kansas fan. KU was favored by 9.5 points and lost to lowly Colorado – the same team that lost to Toledo and Colorado State. Missouri, though losing by 16 to a team they were expected to lose to by 7.5, still lost to a team that was ranked and it was on the road. They are 0-2 in conference play. And, of course, if you are a KSU fan, you are giddy, but the excitement of obliterating A&M still has to be a tough pill to swallow having gotten obliterated the week before by Tech. With Nebraska losing, the Big 12 North is in chaos.

Air MidwestI’m going to plan on a post of this sort after each weekend’s games. Don’t expect to read anything earth-shattering (few tables), but I’ve always got some thoughts on the games played – especially in the Big 12. Thus, I probably won’t have much to say about those SECers or those Big 10ers or those PAC10ers. Besides, is there football outside of the Big 12?

All-Big 12 All the TimeAs I mentioned a few days ago, the Big 12 was 8-9 versus the line with no line available on five other games. It wasn’t so much that the teams were about 50-50 as it was the size of some of the “misses”. Colorado had two embarrassing losses, Oklahoma, K-State, Oklahoma State and Iowa State also fell far short of what Vegas expected in one of their games. I’m not a gambler and I don’t advocate betting on these contests. In fact, for the most part, I think gambling is problematic for society, but don’t get me started. Nevertheless…

It took me a couple days to get over this week’s embarrassing Big 12 games, but I think I’ve recovered. I’m forced to accept the 2009’s version of the B12 may not be the greatest thing since the invention of cruise control. In fact, if the ship isn’t righted soon, they may not even be better than the average Super Conference.

Almost PerfectThere were some oddities in this first weekend of conference football. No analysis, just some random thoughts. Of course, you have to start with the what may be the first time this has ever happened in the history of NCAA conference football…

Polls are a way of life.No poll is worth much unless it is the final poll – and then it means everything. But it would be incorrect to say preseason polls mean nothing. Unlike college basketball, or hockey or baseball or soccer or tiddly winks, Division I football doesn’t have a playoff. Because of this unfortunate, and incredibly outdated fact, every poll does matter. By and large, it is hard to pass another team in front of you as long as that team keeps winning. So, naturally, the higher ranked you are from the beginning, the better your odds of being there when the BCS comes a’calling.

John Hadl - The RusherJohn Hadl - The PasserIn a post a few days ago about running backs in the Big 12, I referred to the trend toward passing and how that left most running backs playing second banana. Naturally, one would wonder whether the best RBs in the country are going to go to schools outside the Big 12 – fearing they may not get an opportunity to shine. It’s probably still too early in this passing trend to determine if the Big-12 is getting snubbed by the best rushers, but it’s definitely likely at some point.

CF PreviewIn three earlier pieces, I examined what the preseason predictions were for the Big-12, the wide receiver corps and the quarterbacks. Links to each one of the stories are below. In this post, I’m going to concentrate on the running backs. It’s strange having so few great RBs compared to WRs or QBs – at least for me. I grew up when the Big 8 was the most powerful dominating running conference in the country. Passing the ball was about as unimportant as passing gas – although, admittedly, sometimes that can have a pretty high priority… but I digress.

CF PreviewWith the Big 12 Football fast approaching, I figured this would be a good time to look at the sexiest position of all. And, not only is it the sexiest position, but this particular season stands to challenge last year as the sexiest QB season in Big 12 history and maybe even challenge what any other conference has ever had behind the center.

CF PreviewIn the first part of this series I mainly listed the preseason rankings for the conference teams based on the preseason publications I had – Phil Steel, Lindy’s, Athlon and Sporting News. I immediately notice problems with Steel which I dealt with briefly – one of them was based on his rankings of receiver corps. I will address that in more detail here, but first an analysis of each of the conference teams and what they have coming back.

CF PreviewAs I mentioned in my What’s coming up? post, I purchased four major college preseason football publications: Athlon, Sporting News, Phil Steel and Lindy’s. Even though I feel like I put out a lot of material, I’m just amazed at how much is involved in these previews. Of course, for all I know, they have 50 people doing it. In any event, there is no way I can compete by virtue of my own analysis, but what I can do is to take what they have done and analyze that.

Which way is your program headed?When I was in college, I worked at a factory -- Square D -- just north of Columbia for awhile. For eight hours a night, I assembled circuit breakers as fast as my fat fingers would go, trying to meet and beat my nightly quota. The work was mind-numbingly boring. Many nights, I sat next to another student named Mark, a rabid Mizzou football fan, who knew the inside scoop on every high school recruit that the school had ever contacted. (His name was NOT Jeremy Crabtree.) He was so enthusiastic, and our time to chat so ample, that he managed to make me believe that every kid that signed on with Mizzou put us one step closer to the Orange Bowl. I thought Tiger Boyd (how perfect is that name?) from Sikeston was going to be the next great running back. I think he ended up as a reserve linebacker. The Tigers proceeded to win exactly three games in each of the four subsequent seasons. So it goes with college recruiting.

One of OU's numerous championshipsPrestige Rankings. Huh? What's that? ESPN recently did a study they called “Prestige Rankings”. They ranked 119 Division I football programs based on how great their tradition and success rate has been since 1936. I don’t know about you, but I have no idea what was going on in 1935 or 1934 or 1933 regarding football. I can tell you a lot about the markets and the economy in those days, but do we really need to include anything college football related before 1936? ESPN says no. I agree. First, the most important revelation.