KU Hoops: 2010 Starting Lineup

KU 2010 RosterIn mathematics, you can show that some things are impossible. For example, no matter how hard you try, you cannot make 3=5. Why do I bring up something so obvious? Because 13 is not equal to 8 either. No matter how you slice it, dice or attempt to nice it, it can’t be done. So, what is significant about 13 and 8? Well, if you haven’t already figured it out, you will see. If not in the next three minutes, then sometime in October.

Please note at the bottom the additional stories I will be doing in the next week or so on KU for 2009-10.

Kansas is blessed (or is it cursed?) with a huge personnel problem. I’m going to list the 2009-10 roster below. The object of this IQ test is to determine who the starting lineup will be and to determine who is going to get playing time. Those left will be the Appletons and Thomases of next season. The difference is that they were not top-40 players!

If you can figure out how to make everyone (or even almost everyone) happy, you are a better man than I’ll ever be. And, if you are not a man, let’s just stipulate you are a better woman than I’ll ever be whether you can figure it out or not.

Self is a relentless recruiter as we have seen. His ability to nail Henry is incredible. Obviously, I didn’t think it was possible and I was delusional enough to trust my own judgment – which meant underestimating Self’s sales ability. I’m going to try hard not to make that absurd mistake again.

I’ve shown the data below. Take a look at the Rivals senior-season ranking. You will notice that 12 of the 13 were ranked. The only one that wasn’t is Morningstar – and he played the second highest number of minutes on the team last year! I arbitrarily ranked Little at #50 – which would be an average 4-star player (which he was as a Juco transfer).

Now, back to the numbers game. Kansas played eight primary players in 2008-09. That’s pretty normal for most schools. I can see seven or nine. In the case of Missouri where you just flood people in and out to maintain the intensity, maybe as many as ten. But, 10 ain’t 13 and there isn’t any new math that will make it so.

I can assure you that none of the four incoming recruits are expecting to play 4-5 minutes a game. How many of the players from last season who have another year of experience are expecting to play 4-5 minutes a game? You can bet your life that the answer is “none”. But, some of these guys are probably going to do just that.

In an ideal Self world, I think he would play eight players for at least 95% of the meaningful minutes. If that is true, that leaves five of these guys in the no-man’s land – at least no-man-wanted land. You can mix and match based on position, but none of that matters. You can’t make a game be more than 40 minutes and you can’t end up with more than 200 for the team.

It is fairly safe to say that Kansas has never had this many highly ranked players on the same team at the same time. I will be doing a story on that subject and that will be the secondary headline for it. KU is beyond loaded. It’s almost a violation of some obscure NCAA rule for unfair play - like maybe the "Mercy Rule" should apply. How any coach could manage to convince this many players that they will contribute is tantamount to selling the Brooklyn Bridge to get over Indian Creek. With his willingness to take one or more (X and Stephenson) one-and-doners, coupled with overloading the roster such that good players (Appleton and Thomas) transfer, the whole thing makes me a little uneasy. I just don’t want to see us change our name from the Jayhawks to the Turnstiles.

THE ROSTER

Here they are in alphabetical order. Again, the minutes played last season is on the right.

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Notice the little bold number in the lower right hand corner. There are only 200 minutes available in a game. Even if nobody gains minutes from last season, Xavier Henry, Elijah Johnson, Thomas Robinson and Jeff Whithey will have to split 3 minutes. That’s 45 seconds per game each…

… Ok, now obviously, that’s not going to happen. One would figure that X is not only expecting 25+ minutes a game, but he was surely all-but-promised it. As to CJ, don’t even get me started. I’m ignoring all walk-ons because… well, the reason is obvious. Let’s deal with the 13 scholarship players first and then we’ll see if there are any 15-second scraps here or there for walk-ons. And, I’m saying that just hoping against hope that Self hasn’t committed 5-10 minutes a game to C.J.

STARTING LINEUP

One thing is for sure. Whoever the starters are, they are going to have to work their A$$es off to even keep their jobs. Secondly, their practices will be like Final Four games. It should make everyone better. But, what you can’t measure on paper is the intangible that comes from happy players. I just don’t know who is going to be happy here. I only believe there will be some that will not be happy.

Aldrich and Collins are easy choices for starters. Beyond that… it’s the old “You’re a better man than I’ll ever be” thing. I’m going to say X because he may have already gotten that commitment - or at least a wink. Besides, he probably is the best pro of the group (from what we know) unless it is Aldrich. And, Self may well have more pressure on him regarding X than any other players.

At least in theory (and assuming Sherron plays under control all season), that’s a great first three to start with. I can’t see any way that McMorris won’t be the power forward. He’s better than Kieff - and Robinson is just a freshman. Self doesn’t have any problems making that decision.

If Taylor starts at the 2-guard (and how can he not?), that would mean X would be at the 3 (small forward – your basic Brandon Rush position).

The odds are, IMO, that your starting lineup will be Aldrich, Collins, Taylor, Henry and McMorris. Interestingly that’s 80% of last year’s starters.

No doubt the one missing piece to the puzzle last year was the athletic, scoring small forward. Just having these four players being a year older and adding X is enough, all by itself, to put KU in the Final Four. It’s everyone else that gives them a good chance to go all the way.

Here is my prediction on who will get minutes.

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This is WILDLY speculative. Anybody’s guess is as good (or better) than mine. Even this scenario requires playing nine players 10+ minutes – which is unlikely. Of course, Self can always hope for injuries. Or, maybe he can convince someone to redshirt. I don’t even know what to suggest. It’s just too big a problem. Problems, problems, problems.

The single thing I would suggest is that Releford should seriously consider transferring. It’s not too late. He is not going to play this year or next year or any other year. There is just no way. He’s a four-star player and it’s a shame to see him sit on the bench his whole career. Incredibly, his freshman season may have been his peak.

Of course, the downside is that if he transferred, Self's eyes would light up and... 

Here are some other stories that I will be following up with.

>> The best NCAA recruiting classes in 2009.

>> KU’s best recruiting classes of all time.

>> All six of Self’s recruiting classes and how KU ranks nationally over that period of time.

>> Ranking the Top basketball schools for next season.

>> Where this leaves KU vs Kentucky and North Carolina on the all-time wins list.