Mike Jacobs: An analysis

Mike JacobsIn an effort to bolster the Royals' power, Dayton Moore dealt reliever Leo Nunez to the Marlins today for first baseman Mike Jacobs. I've discussed Jacobs with Moore at length, as he knows my affinity for on-base percentage. To say the least, that's not one of Mike Jacobs' strong points.

ORGANIZATIONAL PHILOSOPHY

It's not just me, though, that harps on the importance of OBP. Moore and Trey Hillman also espouse on-base percentage as the key to the offensive engine they hope to deploy. New hitting coach Kevin Seitzer is on board with that philosophy as well, which is the primary reason he landed the job.

Well, it's one thing to have a philosophy and another thing to live it. I asked Moore at one point during the season about how the organization develops hitters, particularly in the area of plate discipline. What he told me was that, in the minors, the team's instructors try to maximize on whatever the innate qualities of a hitter might be.

If that hitter is Jeff Francoeur and he has tremendous power but will leap off his feet to swipe at a high fastball, then so be it. The hope is that by encouraging him to stay aggressive, he in time learns where in (and sometimes out of) the strike zone he can handle pitches and where he can't. The discipline comes with experience.

If that hitter is Alex Gordon, then they encourage that innate trait of being patient at the plate. They let him watch a few juicy fastballs go by and hope that, as he develops, he'll recognize those pitches and jump all over them. In the meantime, you enjoy the walks.

The idea is that whatever comes natural to the hitter should be encouraged. Harnessed, but encouraged. That's because Moore believes either a hitter is innately patient or he's innately aggressive. The best hitters are, of course, just the right mix of both, but that's another story.

I share that belief that it is very difficult to teach a free swinger how to be a patient hitter. In most cases, such as with Sammy Sosa, when undisciplined hitters have been able to increase their walks and OBPs, it's because they became so dangerous with the bat, develop so much power, that pitchers work them differently. They learn to lay off the unhittable pitch and, sure, even take a few walks. But in later years, as that bat speed wanes, the walks disappear and so does everything else. The wild swinger, meanwhile, is always there.

With that in mind, it's imperative to the Royals that if they are sincere in their desire to improve on-base percentage, then they acquire hitters who are have that innate trait of patience and discipline. Moore feels this way, as well, or that's what he told me anyway.

TRADE NOT SO BAD

So you might think that all this leading up to a condemnation of the Jacobs' deal. Not really. I'm not doing jumping jacks over this trade, but it doesn't bother me that much.

The Royals are still in position of finding stopgaps to improve their product at the big-league level. The overall improvement of the offense, as it correlates to on-base percentage, is going to come from the development system. That system is not yet churning out the kinds of hitters the Royals need. So, in the interim, you trade for guys like Mike Jacobs.

OBP PICTURE IS UGLY

Jacobs and Jose Guillen posted two of the 10-lowest on-base percentages among all qualifying hitters in big-league baseball during the 2008 season. Now they are likely to be paired back-to-back in the Royals' batting order. When this possibility caused me to raise a skeptical eyebrow and probably turn a little green, Moore was quick to defend the plan.

Look, he knows that Jacobs and Guillen are on-base percentage sinkholes. What Moore is planning, however, is to field a lineup that is strong in that category at the other slots. In other words, it'll be up to Gordon, DeJesus, Butler, Callaspo, et al, to be on base for Guillen and Jacobs to drive them in. Can that work?

I doubt it. I just can't get past the on-base percentage issue. Check this out:

* - league on-base percentage

This chart reflects what the Royals' other hitters would have to achieve for the team to post even a league-average OBP. If Jacobs and Guillen get similar playing time to 2008 and post identical on-base percentages, to reach the 2008 AL average OBP of .336, the rest of the Royals' hitters would have to combine for a .344 OBP. Is that possible? Well, here are the career OBPs for the most likely hitters to return to the team in 2009:

Only three of those hitters are above the needed target OBP of .344. Sure, Gordon can get better. Butler can get better. But German won't get much playing time and Aviles' numbers were almost certainly a product of a career season and cannot be replicated. The only sure bet to post a OBP above .344 is David DeJesus.

That's not enough. Some of these guys might get traded. We don't know who else might be brought in. But as things stand today, the Royals will almost certainly post one of the worst OBPs in the league and since the overall power and team speed will probably be lacking again, they've already consigned themselves to another bottom-five finish in run scoring -- with a shaky defense to boot.

AS FOR JACOBS

One of my first reactions to the deal was that Jacobs' power wouldn't translate to Kansas City. That reaction was unfounded, I'm happy to report.

Jacobs hit .247/.299/.514 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) overall in 2008. I was concerned that perhaps those numbers had been inflated by his ballpark. In actuality, the ballpark worked against Jacobs. In fact, if you translate his 2008 line to Kauffman Stadium, his numbers would have actually been around .254/.307/.525.

The Marlins were second in the NL in homers last season, but actually hit 20 more homers on the road. According to Moore, Dolphin Stadium is friendly to pull hitters but tough for guys with power from gap to gap and straightaway center. This, he feels is where Jacobs does most of his damage. Indeed, he hit 18 of his 32 home runs on the road last season. So any concerns I had about Jacobs' power being transferrable to the K may be largely unfounded.

But that isn't my only concern about Jacobs' power.

Jacobs is 28 -- today is his birthday, as a matter of fact. He is just beginning his peak years. However, as I've written many times, the most typical age for a hitter to have his career season is 27. Prior to last season, Jacobs hit 20 and 17 homers for the Marlins in a similar number of plate appearances. So there is a good chance that Mike Jacobs is never going to threaten the 30 home-run mark again.

It's not all gloom, though. While the 32-homer season stands out as a non-repeatable spike in Jacobs' career record, his slugging percentages are more stable. There is more to power than hitting home runs and Jacobs should stay steady in the .460-.500 range in that category, good enough to help the Royals.

But is it good enough to offset a .300 on-base percentage? That's a tough call. A lot of that power is going to have to come with men on base for it to be a net gain. Last season, Jacobs was a worse hitter with runners in scoring position whereas most hitters hit a little better with men on base. That'll happen with hitters that have poor command of the strike zone.

IN SUMMATION

The Royals didn't give up much in this deal. I like Leo Nunez's potential as a reliever, but middle relievers are the most fungible assets a general manager has at his disposal. Moore has proven that he knows how to piece together a capable bullpen so I have no worries in that regard.

This trade can work for the Royals if Kevin Seitzer can coax a modicrum of improved strike-zone command from Jacobs and if it turns out that Jacobs' home-run surge last season was simply the next stage of his development rather than a career-year spike.

I'm skeptical on both counts but, overall, I'm OK with the deal. It'd be nice to trade for an well-rounded slugger like, say, Albert Pujols, but those kinds of hitters just don't aren't going to get traded to the Royals, mostly for monetary reasons.