Following in the footsteps of Bill Kenney?An interesting story ran in the Boston Herald today regarding the buzz in Tampa surrounding Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel. The skinny: Cassel will draw plenty of interest if the Patriots decide to trade him and the favorite to get him -- according to the gossip -- would be the Chiefs.
This is obviously just rumor mill stuff, but such a move -- at the right price -- would likely be a popular move among Chiefs fans. From what I've been able to gather in talking to people around town and in feedback on this blog is that acquiring Cassel has more appeal for the fan base than drafting a quarterback in the first round. That's understandable, given the emerging consensus that this is not a great quarterback draft.
However, it's kind of funny. So many are willing to cast their lot with Cassel based off of his one season as a starter but are skeptical of doing the same with Tyler Thigpen.
Cassel, as was so widely reported, had not played since high school. He was plugged into an offensive group that had posted one of the NFL's greatest ever seasons the year before, getting his first extended playing time at the age of 26.
Meanwhile, Thigpen, who like Cassel was forced into action because of injuries to others, took over a dreadful offense, potentially the league's worst, and by most accounts performed admirably under the circumstances. He's a better athlete than Cassel and is about two years younger. According to football outsiders, Cassel ranked 20th in the league with a 6.4% DVOA and Thigpen limped in at 30th (out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks) with a DVOA of -6.1%.
The difference in performance is significant but not so much that you can draw a clear distinction between the two players. Considering Cassel's much, much better supporting cast and his Thigpen-like, late-round draft slot, I can't say with any degree of certainty that Cassel is going to turn out to be a better player than Thigpen. He may simply be the next Scott Mitchell.
Let me ask you this: If Tyler Thigpen had been the guy forced to step in for Tom Brady last season, how many games would the Patriots have won last season? I certainly don't know, but I suspect New England wouldn't have been that much worse. You do have to acknowledge that Cassel is probably a better fit for the Patriots' system than Thigpen. However, the whole point of New England's scheme is that it is supposed to have a chameleon-like ability to adapt. So who's to say?
The Patriots won 11 games last season. The Chiefs won two. So I get why Cassel seems more attractive at this point. But try to isolate the myriad factors that go into winning football games from the individual play of the two players. How certain are you that Cassel is really any better than Thigpen?
Just a reminder on Cassel's situation: His contract is up. However, the Patriots have until Feb. 19 to slap a franchise tag on him. It is widely believed that New England will apply the tag to Cassel, given his performance last season and the uncertainty over the recovery of Brady. For his part, Brady claims to be coming along nicely and thinks he'll be ready for the start of next season. Cassel is saying that he'd be satisfied to return as Brady's backup. Even if New England applies to franchise tag to Cassel, they can still trade him, which is the scenario being speculated about in the linked Herald piece.
