The NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP - Everything You Want To Know

BCS Championship Logo And, then there were two. My opinion is that no matter what happens in this game – even if it is the ugliest game in history - even if one team wins on a fluke call that clearly was wrong, but not overturned – even if both teams get into a fight and half of each are thrown out… USC or Texas will be on the outside looking in. Texas might have had a shot if they stomped OSU and OU barely beat Florida. But, that went up in smoke. USC? Just too many hurdles.

I’m picking (drum roll…………) Oklahoma. Whoda thunk it? Well, here is the bottom line. I realize Vegas has Florida by 3.5 points (37-33). And, that’s probably because OU hasn’t exactly been world beaters in bowls recently plus the fact that it’s a “home” game for the Gators. But, so what? I say OU by 3 (38-35).

Oklahoma is the #1 team in the country for a reason. Well, for lots of reasons. Thus, I’m on solid ground with this prediction. Of course, if a person were picking Florida, they would be on solid ground too.

Let’s break it down. They are both 12-1 and winners of their conferences – the two conferences (pre bowl) that most everyone picked as the top two conferences in the country. Both teams are on a roll unlike any you will ever see – or at least if you do, it’s rare. Being a big fan of offense and knowing that it traditionally wins bowl games, I’m picking OU because they have scored over 58+ points in each of the last six games – four of their opponents bowl-bound and three of them ranked – all the while being led by this year's Heisman Trophy winner. Do I really need another reason?

Of course, the problem is that Florida is just as impressive. Since their only loss, they are 9-0, winning by an average margin of 36+ ppg against seven bowl teams, two of them ranked – all the while being led by last year’s Heisman Trophy winner. Ok, so I’m back to needing another reason or two.

Maybe I should just back up a little and start from the beginning.

OU Advantage: According to Jeff Sagarin, OU had the #8 toughest schedule, Florida #19.

FL Advantage: OU played 8 bowl teams (7-1). Florida went to war against 10 bowl teams (9-1).

FL Advantage: OU was +24.75 against the 8 bowl opponents. Florida was +31.40 against the 10 bowl opponents.

OU Advantage: OU played six BCS ranked teams (5-1). Florida faced three BCS ranked teams (2-1).

OU Advantage: OU was +24.17 against the six ranked opponents. Florida was +16.33 against the three ranked opponents.

IT’S A WASH: OU’s bowl-bound opponents were 5-3 in their bowls. FL’s bowl-bound opponents were 6-4.

OU Advantage: OU’s loss was to the #3 team on a neutral field by 10 points. FL’s loss was by one point to the #25 team at home.

FL Advantage: OU’s margin of victory for the season is +29.46. FL’s is +32.31.

OU Advantage: All six unbiased computers have OU #1. FL is #2 in one, #3 in one, #4 in three and #5 in one.

OU Advantage: The USA Today poll has OU with 31 first place votes to 26. The AP poll has OU with 50 first place votes to 9. The Harris poll has FL with 77 first place votes to 26. Two to one.

That’s six reasons for, three reasons against and one tie. Good enough for me. But, let me make myself perfectly clear. The single best argument, besides the offense, is the fact that OU has played six BCS ranked teams and Florida has played three BCS ranked teams. OU’s six opponents are ranked #3, #7, #11, #12, #13, #21. FL’s three opponents are ranked #4, #15 and #25. Not only has OU been tested more often against stronger competition, but they have fared better. As I pointed out above, OU is +24 ppg against their six, while FL is +16 ppg against theirs. That’s the ultimate bottom line. OU by 3.

Oklahoma #1 (12-1) vs #2 Florida (12-1)

BCS National Championship: Big 12 history (2-3)

When: Thursday, January 8, 7 p.m.

Big 12 vs SEC: 2008 (1-0), All-time (18-20)

OU Bowl Record: 24-16-1

Series: First meeting

Scoring Margin: Oklahoma +29.46 ppg, Florida +32.31 ppg

Strength of Schedule: Oklahoma #8, Florida #19

Betline: Florida by 3.5

My Prediction: Oklahoma 38-35

Coaching Comparison:

Bob Stoops (OU) 109-23 (.826), Career 109-23 (.826)

Urban Meyer (FL) 43-9 (.827), Career 82-17 (.828)

Quarterback Comparison:

Bradford and Tebow

Sam Bradford (OU)

4,464 yards, 48 TDs, 7 Int., 68.3%

Tim Tebow (FL)

2,515 yards, 28 TDs, 3 Int., 64.9%

National rankings

	Pass	Pass	Total	Comp/	Points
	Yards	Eff	Yards	Game	Resp.for
Bradford	2	1	4	12	2
Tebow	49	4	41	86	7

Runningback Comparison:

Chris Brown (OU) 1,110 yards, 20 TDs, 5.69 ypc

DeMarco Murray (OU) 1,002 yards, 14 TDs, 5.60 ypc (out)

--------------------------

Chris Rainey (FL) 655 yards, 4 TDs, 7.89 ypc

Jeffrey Demps (FL) 582 yards, 7 TDs, 8.43 ypc

Percy Harvin (FL) 538 yards, 9 TDs, 8.82 ypc

Receiver Comparison:

Juaquin Iglesias (OU) 1,092 yards, 10 TDs, 15.83 ypc

Jermaine Gresham (OU) 888 yards, 12 TDs, 15.31 ypc

Manuel Johnson (OU) 685 yards, 9 TDs, 18.03 ypc

Ryan Broyles (OU) 661 yards, 6 TDs, 15.74 ypc

--------------------------

Louis Murphy (FL) 611 yards, 6 TDs, 16.97 ypc

Percy Harvin (FL) 595 yards, 7 TDs, 17.00 ypc

Other Notables: (Top 50)

Oklahoma: Lendy Holmes #28 in Interceptions. Ryan Broyles #39 in Punt Returns. DeMarco Murray #10 in Kickoff Returns. Chris Brown #3 in Scoring. Jimmy Stevens #14 in Scoring. DeMarco Murray #24 in Scoring. DeMarco Murray #8 in All-Purpose Running. Jimmy Beal #36 in sacks. Travis Lewis #10 in Tackles.

Florida: Ahmed Black #10 in Interceptions. Brandon Spikes #41 in Interceptions. Brandon James #13 in Punt Returns. Jonathan Phillips #27 in Field Goals. Percy Harvin #18 in Scoring. Jonathan Phillips #24 in Scoring. Carlos Dunlap #30 in Sacks.

I debated whether to include the raw numbers in the team comparisons below or simply the national rankings. I’m a big advocate of evaluating based on rankings unless you are an expert at all of the numbers. Ratios and percentages and the like get lost in the shuffle with so much data. I find it much more revealing to simply show where each team ranks nationally for each category. That makes it very clear where a team’s strengths and weaknesses are.

There are 119 Division I football teams.

OFFENSE	Oklahoma	Florida
Rushing	18	11
Passing	3	62
Passing Efficiency	1	4
Total	3	17
Red Zone	1	8
Third Down Conversion %	7	13
Scoring	1	3
DEFENSE	Oklahoma	Florida
Rushing	16	15
Passing	98	16
Passing Efficiency	43	2
Total	63	8
Red Zone	45	3
Scoring	58	4
MISC	Oklahoma	Florida
Turnover Margin	1	2
Net Punting	83	8
Punt Returns	71	7
Kickoff Returns	5	49
Yards Penalized	109	93
Sacks	3	30
Sacks Allowed	3	16

As is the case with all the Big 12 bowl match-ups, Oklahoma has an edge on offense while Florida has higher defensive rankings. The key above may be as simple as punting vs kickoffs or sacks vs sacks allowed.

Florida has a big advantage in both punting and punt returns. Oklahoma has a big advantage in kickoff returns. Which is more important? Well, when one team averages 54 ppg and the other team averages 45 ppg, I’m not sure punting is an issue. There may not be any advantage since DeMarco Murray is out for OU.

Also, being #3 in both sacks and sacks allowed is remarkable. Florida is respectable at #30 and #16, but that’s a significant advantage to OU. The Sooners have sacked their opponent 42 times. On the other hand, Bradford (or whoever was QB) was only sacked 11 times – or once for every 43 passing attempts. Florida has sacked their opponents 32 times and been sacked 16 – or once for every 19 passing attempts – over twice as often as OU. That all bodes well for Oklahoma, along with the fact that the Sooners rank #8 in tackles for loss while Florida ranks #87.

Submitted by Martin Manley on January 7, 2009 - 2:21pm.
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No Bragging Martin

Submitted by umrebelfan69 on January 8, 2009 - 10:55pm.

I couldnt wait till the morning. Martin, that was a great game! Now I will say "Oklahoma Is that good"

They have finally played a real defense and they played Damn good. Bradford now has my Heisman vote. I am not changing sides, but I will call a spade a spade. Helluva game.

Considered

Submitted by Skeebo on January 8, 2009 - 7:04pm.

Oh snap. Strong rebuttal.

Again, as noted in multiplicity, these rankings are largely derived in conference play. The pass ofenses may be average in the SEC as a direct result of strong defense. Pass offense in Big-12 may be amazing as a direct result of weak defense.

Florida may not have seen Bradford, but they might have seen a decent athletic proximity whose glow was muted in conference play. Who really knows?

Before meeting WVU (I didn't think would run the spread option with any sucsess in tht Fiesta Bowl) who could have imagined that Oklahoma would be so inept against their speed? Yet WVU ran circles around them.

We don't really know how comparable all these 119 teams are, or who has seen what.

We find out soon.

Pick this.

Submitted by Skeebo on January 8, 2009 - 5:36pm.

I’m picking Florida, blindly and heavy bellied.

I poured over some stats and had a big presentation planned and then my dog named Job ate my night and I’m taking Job on his 8 block walk now. So this is a stat free post (the woe!) and if a supervisor is monitoring my internet usage, hey, I’m clocked out on my 15 minute break. Check the punch record.

Several themes crop up in Martin’s pick.

Theme: bowl bound opponents are indicators of the quality of said opponents (henceforth referred to as QO)

Theme: Computer ranking is an indicator QO

Theme: BCS ranking is an indicator of QO

Theme: Oklahoma fared better with QO and had better QO on which they fared better. Being the better farer, OK shall fare better tonight

.Sub-theme: Big offense fares better in the big bowl fair. OK is better at offense, ipso facto they (better) win.

I’m chucking out the 58+ in the last six games. Awesome feat, really, but relevance to this game: not much. We know OK is AWESOME at scoring points, many of them against Big-12 opponents and many of them scored just to get into this very game. An indicator of their unprecedented knack at scoring points, it is, an indication that they will score enough to win tonight, it is not.

If the bowl bound opponent theme is true, and Florida played more bowl bound opponents (10 to 8) and beat them by more points, than how did OK play a tougher schedule and play it better? Well, the next theme must be truer: BCS rankings are a great indicator of QO.

A quick glance through bowl season results show that BCS rankings (which do have the bias of human touch) did not serve as a quality predictor of results. Most of the higher ranked teams lost.

It gets even muddier when the teams that put the quality in OK opponents have not fared well in their bowl games.

Even the win of the Big 3 of the Big 12 (excluding OK as yet undecided) VASTLY underperformed given their perceived quality pre-bowl. Tout the total numbers as strong ones compared to Ohio State’s allowed averages but Texas, with the most accurate season of passing in the game’s history, winning in the final seconds was not in my Play Bill.

Texas Tech scoring the most points of the season against Ole Miss while losing. Surely that can’t square against their ranking, so, aren’t the Big-3 rankings suspect?

And how on the back of suspect rankings can we accurately base anything about OK or FL QO? We can’t.

That too may dash the ultimate theme as Martin makes clear: that, based on their performance against superior competition, OK more suited to victory.

The Big 12 in no way shape or form used the bowls to showcase superiority, even if they still put up strong offensive numbers. If that is the single best reason to choose OK in this game, it may also explain the Vegas line.

IT’S A WASH that OK lost to the #3 team who lost to the #8 team who lost to the #25 team who beat Florida.

As for the proposition that offense wins bowls games, even traditionally, where are the stats on that?

Defense is key. It always is key.

Utah beat Alabama at the line. Ole Miss beat Texas Tech at the line. Ohio State almost beat Texas on D and the Texas D almost beat themselves by letting Ohio State keep Colt off the field. Don’t tell me the Ohio State offense had Texas on the hook.

The story two years ago wasn’t, “will Ohio State’s Ted and Troy offense be good enough to win?” It was “is Florida good enough to stop them?” Yep. They were.

And the defense won that game too.

I’m an NFL guy.

The new all spread all the time college ball is a gimmick, it’s a rigged deck. Yes, it’s shown to be wonderfully good at winning and winning large, which, I’ll admit, is the goal of the game. But it’s not athletes lining up and beating each other, it’s finding a one-legging man and challenging his ability to kick your ass.

I just don’t think big time O can yet overcome big time D (assuming the D is backed by an average offense, of which Ohio State was not equipped). Big time D has shown time and time again the ability to win big games, big time O (hello New England) has not shown this to me AT ANY LEVEL. Yet.

The question of this game is no different. Will Oklahoma stop Florida’s O? No. Will Florida stop Oklahoma’s O? Maybe. I

don’t believe that OK can catch the speedy receiving corps of FL or bump them off of their short routes. I don’t think the number 3 sack ranking will catch Tebow with a lingered ball.

I do think Florida will disrupt Bradford. I think their D is faster than we may think.

I think that if we can impugn the Big 10 for past Rose Bowl performances, if we can stack the deck against Ohio State for not showing up two years running, than Bob Stoops has, recently, a big game resume that needs challenging, that lacks reassurance.

I think these things before game time.

I know nothing.

Eric:

Submitted by Martin Manley on January 8, 2009 - 6:22pm.

Excellent Post:

Just to clarify one thing you said. If you only look at the top 25, the lower ranked team won the majority of them. If, however, you extend the rankings out to those that recieved votes - 35, the final number was 11-11.

IT'S A WASH? Florida lost to Mississippi who lost to S.Carolina who lost to Clemson who lost to Maryland who lost to lowly Middle Tennessee State. While those kinds of things are fun to do, they mean nothing to me.

Also, I am only picking OU by 3 points. I'm not exactly picking them by 10 or 20. I expect it to be extremely competitive. Given that both teams are so explosive, it is very possible that one or the other of them could jump out by 21 points or something. But, there is no way to predict such a thing.

One thing to keep in mind on FL's defense. Their defense played extremely poor offenses!!! If OU's offense can be argued to have played poor defenses, the same holds true for Florida's defense against SEC offenses. Here are the SEC offenses national rankings next door to the Big 12's national rankings on defense. The difference is minimal. The average SEC offensive rank is #76. The average Big 12 defensive rank is #82.

115	114
110	110
110	110
105	87
96	86
91	82
87	80
35	76
30	74
29	69
28	18

One more thing, FL only played one SEC team with with a pass offense ranking of #57 or better! They have not seen the likes of a Bradford while Oklahoma has seen the likes of a Tebow.

Martin

Which Cat Are You?

Submitted by umrebelfan69 on January 7, 2009 - 5:29pm.

Oh yeah Martin, I forgot to ask in those earlier comments. Which one of those two dudes are you? Are you the bearded guy on the left or the other one on the right. I like to put a face to my favorite Little Dozen Beat writer.

UM:

Submitted by Martin Manley on January 7, 2009 - 7:31pm.

If you look to the left, you will see Contributors. Martin Manley: Mission statement and contact info. My picture is on there. It's a little less goofy.

Martin

Spin Spin Spin

Submitted by umrebelfan69 on January 7, 2009 - 5:20pm.

Ok, Martin, now that I got your attention. I see you are right back at your statistical argument. Like I said in comment to an earlier article....lets call it the "Article Whose Name Shall Not Be Spoken", or AWNSNBS for short, Your data is skewed. Oklahoma is a very capable team, and very well may be the #1 team in the nation after tommorrow night, but those stats you put so much faith in are compiled by playing in a Defensive Vacuum. I would liken Big XII defenses to the league of the Iraqi Republican Guard. Lets face it Martin, you and I can pass for huge numbers and multitudes of points in the Little Dozen.

Florida has played legitimate defenses and killed them. The whole "Sam Bradford wins the Heisman" thingy is as scandalous as Tape being found over a lock at the Watergate, or Monica is headed into the oval office with knee pads. If Bradford can put up offensive numbers like Tebow against the teams that he did it against, then an argument for Heisman can be made. But here on this point we are fortunate. Bradford will get his chance. That is what is NOT flawed about our BCS system, a system that you referred to as ludicrous in the AWNSNBS. But the whole playoff vs BCS argument is best to wait till another post. At least now #1 does get to meet #2 on the gridiron.

I had hoped you would comment when you were on SEC Nation today, but then again, maybe you were just cellar dwelling down thar wid us necks in da south.

Good Luck

umrebelfan69

UM:

Submitted by Martin Manley on January 7, 2009 - 5:54pm.

There is nothing spin about it. I stated facts - every conceivable fact that I could think of for both teams. Margin of victory overcomes those little pesky problems you have with no-defense leagues - as you would call it.

Anyway, I'll be addressing the whole question of defense and offense over the seven bowls after they are over. But, here is just a little preview. Four of the six teams so far have held their opponents to UNDER their season average. As to offense. Here are the six teams and the ranking their offense would have been in the other team's schedule. For example. Tech scored more points on Mississippi than any team this season. That would put them #1 vs their opponent. Oklahoma State scored the fifth highest number of points against Oregon. That would put them #5 vs their opponent. You get the idea. Clearly, the Big 12 offenses have performed very well in the bowls. Your entire premise is predicated upon OU not being able to score against Florida. And, if you say "I just mean they won't score 58+ points", well duh!

Tech #1 vs Mississippi

Oklahoma State #5 vs Oregon

Texas #2 vs Ohio State

Missouri #3 vs Northwestern

Kansas #2 vs Minnesota

Nebraska #3 vs Clemson

Also, I want to say that you did a nice write-up on OU/FLA. That's what I was checking out today. Here is the link for anyone interested.

http://www.secnation.net/index.php?topic=208.new#new

Martin

Thanks

Submitted by umrebelfan69 on January 8, 2009 - 7:02am.

Martin

Semantics. Both you and I are going to find stats that support our positions, so it is pointless to continue. All will be made clear tonight Grasshopper. I promise you now, As you were man enough to do yourself, that if OU wins tonight, I will be here with bells on in the morning to congratulate you first off, and then second off to admit my error. However pointless it may be to continue this debate, I still have to point out that I dont think your theory that "Margin Of Victory" removes the clouds from the argument, for the very same reason stated before, OU's margin of victory was obtained by playing in a defensive black hole. The Sooners never ever wouldve beaten teams by that much MOV. Although I know that you have to do it since there is no other method available, I just dont think you can truly compare stats compiled in one league against what "Could Be" in another. IMHO

I thank you for your kind words about my write up. I am not Press by no means, as you can tell I have no Journalism Major with an English Minor, I just do it as a hobby. I know that you sir have to do it as a living and I commend anyone who tries to use facts to support theories. The only piece of feedback on your writing that I would like to offer is this, and I know the value of my opinion right now may be in negative numbers, but when evaluating an opponent, you might want to try and see an angle that would allow them to win the game, that way you can address that outside chance of a Big 12 loss and how it could be prevented. If all you look at is stats you will miss those subtle nuances that makes this such a great game. I'll will take heart over talent any day, Bear Bryant won with small guys with heart, against huge teams with talent.

See ya in the morning!

umrebelfan69

Ahoy there! Ope our eyes!

Submitted by bharadwajh on January 7, 2009 - 3:24pm.

Florida has played three BCS ranked teams.???

UF played Alabama!! Beat number 1!!!

Did you beat then no.1 texas?? What was that again?

Ahoy back atcha

Submitted by Martin Manley on January 7, 2009 - 3:58pm.

Florida has played three BCS ranked teams. Why the question marks? Just go to the poll and count them. Alabama #4, Georgia #15 and Mississippi #25. If you can find a fourth one, I'll eat it.

It is simple. Oklahoma played six BCS ranked teams. Again, check the poll. #3 (Texas), #7 (Tech), #11 (TCU), #12 (Cincy), #13 (OSU) and #21 (Missouri).

I don't think it's that hard to follow.

Martin

I too am confused

Submitted by umrebelfan69 on January 7, 2009 - 5:22pm.

About Ahoy's comments but I really dont think Texas Tech ranks as a BCS team anymore. Now come on be real

UM:

Submitted by Martin Manley on January 7, 2009 - 5:29pm.

What do you mean Tech is not a "BCS" team anymore??? They went 12-2 and beat the #3 (eventually possibly #2) team in the country and four OTHER bowl-bound teams. And, they beat those other four by an average of 25 ppg!! I fail to see any rationality in your comment - unless your point is that they don't deserve a BCS bowl, but they didn't get that anyway. Are you seriously trying to assert they don't belong in the top 25????? As I said before, they will end around #13-#15. Miss will probably end about #15-#17. But, it is possible Miss could end higher. However, if so... just barely. I take it you would agree Miss belongs in the "BCS".

Martin

Nah

Submitted by umrebelfan69 on January 7, 2009 - 5:33pm.

Just making a joke, It looks better for the Rebs if they do remain a true BCS team. But my rationale was really aimed at being a BCS bowl team. My dumb mistake, you meant the entire BCS rankings, which dont mean anything outside of those 5 bowls does it.

UM:

Submitted by Martin Manley on January 7, 2009 - 5:56pm.

Well, sure it means something. It's still got the humans and computers doing their thing. It is still the best ranking system for the final poll we have.

Martin

Now I am really confused.

Submitted by umrebelfan69 on January 8, 2009 - 7:03am.

Martin,

In the AWNSNBS, you called the system ludicrous. Now it is the best system. Pick a side PUHLEEZE

Submitted by Martin Manley on January 8, 2009 - 2:51pm.

You are missing the point. The "system" meaning to decide a national championship is "ludicrous". No question about it!!! There must be a tournament. There will be a tournament. It's only a matter of time.

However, the BCS poll is the best you could ever hope for. It's obviously vastly superior to human polls as they wildly and widely differ on who is #1. And, it is even better than computer polls because the human element needs to be factored in. I love the BCS poll. I hate the bowl system. I hope that clarifies it.

One more thing. I have advocated using the BCS poll to determine the teams in the 16 team tournament that will someday happen. Take the top 11 conference winners (assuming they are in the top-25). If not, beat it! Add the remaining top at-large teams to fill out the 16 team field, seed them based on the poll and kick off. Four weeks later, you have no more bitching about who should have been the national champion or who should have been in the championship game.

Martin

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