Big 12 FootballOk, I admit it is a long shot to get the top three spots, however the Big 12 finishing 1-2 is reasonably possible. That will happen if Oklahoma beats Florida and Texas beats Ohio State. Texas is a 10 point favorite and Oklahoma is a couple point underdog – probably because they have underperformed in bowls and the fact that they have to play Florida in their own back yard. Still if the chances are 85% for Texas and 45% for Oklahoma to win, the cumulative probability for both to win is 38%. That’s doable. But, 1-2-3? As in 1971?
If you need to catch up on the discussion, go to...
The Big 12 can finish 1-2-3. Part I
The Big 12 can finish 1-2-3. Part II
Before I cuss and discuss Tech, let me add a couple more question marks to the OU-TU 1-2 issue. Keep in mind, all further discussion is predicated upon OU and TU winning – and Tech for that matter.
If Penn State beats USC, there will be no further debate about OU-TU in my opinion. Unless, USC plasters Penn State (and that’s feasible), USC also has no chance to get second. However, let’s say USC wins by 35 and Texas only wins on a fluke over Ohio State, then it’s very possible USC would leapfrog Texas. The main reason is because USC beat Ohio State by 32 points early in the year.
The second hypothetical impediment for a 1-2 finish would seem to be if Alabama were to beat the crap out of Utah. Even if that happens, however, there is no way Alabama would move ahead of Texas because they lost to a team (Florida) which OU beat. And, Texas beat OU. Besides, Alabama’s loss was too late in the year and no matter what anyone says, Alabama is not going to get that much respect by beating Utah… And, that leads me to the question “What if Utah wins?” If they beat Alabama by a lot, they will definitely challenge for third, but there is no way Utah is going to pass Texas for second. Here is why.
Utah beat the BCS #11 (3 points) and #16 (24 points) teams. They also beat two teams that are unranked, but bowl-bound by 7 and 3 points. Big deal. Texas, on the other hand, beat the #1 team (10 points), #13 team (4 points) and #21 team (25 points). They also beat two unranked, but bowl-bound teams, by 28 and 42. Unless Texas wins on a fluke and Utah shells Alabama, there is no point in even debating whether Texas will end ahead of Utah.
So, IMO, if OU and TU win, they are virtually a lock for 1-2.
Tech’s only prayer to end #3 behind OU and TU is if they win by about 40 points over Mississippi. Having to play a four loss team when you play in the toughest division of the toughest conference and you gave the #3 team their only loss and your only loss is to the #1 team in the country… IS A DISGRACE! Besides that, Tech beat bowl-bound Nebraska and bowl-bound Kansas by an average of 24 points! And, they handed #13 Oklahoma State their worst loss of the season – by far. OSU lost to each of the big three, but their 36 point setback to Tech was nearly twice their 20 point loss to OU and nine times their 4 point loss to Texas! However, due to the complete ineptitude of the bowl system, we have to deal with it. Had Tech been able to play USC or Utah or Alabama or even Boise State, they might have been able to gain enough to climb the steep ladder known as the BCS (Bull Crap System) which won’t allow three teams from the same conference into their little clique.
Still, let me suggest a hypothetical scenario – as unlikely as it is.
Tech beats Mississippi by 40+. Alabama beats Utah, so we can scratch the Utes. However, Alabama is unimpressive in doing so. Remember, Tech’s opponent (Mississippi) beat Florida which beat Alabama, so there is not much doubt the Techsters would vault the Tide – especially considering the SEC will have taken a hit on OU beating Florida.
That leaves USC and Penn State. If Penn State wins an unimpressive game, I have no doubt Tech would jump over them as well – again under the assumption that Tech wins by 40+ and OU and TU win their games. However, if USC beats Penn State by 8 or more, I just think it is going to be nearly impossible for Tech to pass the Trojans. USC has too much sentiment and they are too far ahead in the polls today and their loss was too long ago for Tech to overcome them IMO. However, if USC barely wins – thus underperforming vs the line, it’s possible that Tech could squeak by them for third.
Obviously, the bigger the margin for OU over Florida and Texas over Ohio State, the better that is for Tech - just as it was for Colorado in 1971. When Nebraska and Oklahoma murdered their bowl opponents, the fact that Colorado (who also won big) had lost two games became secondary. Why? Because it was clear the Big 8 was overwhelmingly the best conference. Losing to OU and NU meant only that CU must be behind them in the polls and nobody else – and so they ended third.
Assuming OU, TU and TT win convincingly, here is what must happen for Tech to get third.
Alabama must beat Utah by 15 or less.
Penn State must beat USC by 14 or less… ORUSC must beat Penn State by 7 or less.
This is not impossible. It’s unlikely, but stranger things have happened. In fact, the events of 1971 required even more unlikely happenings leading up to the bowls. So, I’m sticking with my goal of the Big 12 finishing one, two, three.
I hate to correct Martin in this piece, but Ole Miss upset UF and NOT Bama. So, assuming the Tide rolls over the Utes, I don't see a snowballs chance in the Saban's underpants in the Big XII going 1-2-3. Assuming Bama wins, of course.
If they lose, anything goes.