Good to be back, and big ups to everyone who responded on Twitter about gyms downtown. Gotta love technology.
Surely there is a way to mathematically determine the exact level of boneheadedness/brilliance of Bill Belichick's fourth-down decision last night in front of millions.
The terrific website Advanced NFL Stats ran some numbers that might make sense after a little more coffee, and determines that it was actually a good decision, despite the swift and heavy and deep criticism from seemingly all angles.
Now, just like in baseball, the numbers Advanced NFL Stats runs should be a guide, not dictation, so reasonable* people can disagree on this.
* I'm Pozterisk-ing that word on purpose. One of the many terrific things about sports is that we can disagree and debate and analyze a common experience, without the division that comes when talking religion or politics. But too often, it seems, we lose sight of that underneath screams about stats or scouts or this-is-how-it-should-be-done-because-I-said-so's.
It gets very loud and annoying in baseball, especially, with the stats/scouts divide, to the point that sometimes neither side can see ANY value in the other's opinion. If you step back, it's not too different from how conservatives and liberals view each other.
We miss a lot this way, and it's a shame. It's also probably a thought to get into more another day.
But, anyway, none of that is my point here today. No, the point here today is something I haven't seen anybody talking about. It's the point about what Belichick's decision means, and the best translation seems to be: Peyton Manning is now in Belichick's head.
It used to be the other way around, of course, with Manning choking and throwing picks and losing every time he played the Patriots, but now, at the very least, these are two sides on equal footing.
The Patriots are not necessarily THE PATRIOTS anymore. It's been five years since they last won the Super Bowl -- the Colts have won more recently.
The Pats throttled the Titans in the snow and the Bucs in Tampa, but also lost to the Jets and beat the Bills by one. They've played two games against teams that now have winning records, and lost both.
The Colts, meanwhile, are undefeated.
That invincibility surrounding the Patriots is gone now, replaced by the realization that the Steelers and Colts are at least on the same level and the Broncos would enter a potential playoff game with the confidence of having already beaten the Patriots.
The Patriots are a power, and still a Super Bowl contender, but there is a feeling of desperation in going for that fourth down, a feeling that Belichick knew his defense would not and could not stop Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne even with 2 minutes and 70-ish yards to go.
Of course, if Kevin Faulk catches that pass cleanly and converts the first down, the conversation changes. But that's not what happened.
A Broncos fan friend made the point that Belichick is the new Mike Shanahan, a former "genius" now outsmarting himself. I'm not sure I'd go that far. If nothing else, Belichick has Tom Brady quarterbacking while Shanahan's post-Elway career centered around Brian Griese, Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler.
But, either way, there is a shift in the AFC power that was illustrated with Belichick's decision last night.
We just need to get past the judgments of the decision to see the bigger point.
One thing to start out with... You mentioned that the Pats beat the Bucs in Tampa in your article. They actually beat them in London, in a game that was supposed to be a Bucs home game. Sorry, don't mean to nit-pik... But.. Anyway...
After reading your article, Joe Poznanski's, Peter King's and about 5 other articles on the subject, and after seeing the game myself... I still come to the conclusion that Belichick made the right call. The statistics show it was the right thing to do, and when I watched the game, I loved the call from an emotional standpoint.
Big game... Statistics in your favor... Future HOF QB...
Hmmm... Some say this was a gutsy call... I say it's a no-brainer.