“In my post a few days ago, I indicated that I would take KSU against the line. At that time the Cats were favored by 2.5 points. If I would give up the points and take K-State at 2.5, imagine how much more I would take them when MU is favored by 1. That’s 3.5 free points if you haven’t put your money down yet...”
What is amazing about the line is how often it is “right”. It’s almost impossible to make money betting against it since the house’s cut requires you win about 52.4% of the time. If you read my post on K-State vs Missouri, it was almost impossible to argue against K-State beating MU - at least as far as I could see. But, that’s all the more evidence of the Big 12 North’s screwiness this season. Oh, and it’s a good reason not to bet the line.
NEBRASKA – KANSAS STATE
The North boils down to this. If Nebraska wins, they go to the Big 12 championship. If they lose, they still go to a bowl. If K-State wins, they go the Big 12 championship. If they lose, their season is over. And, since the game is at Nebraska and since NU will be favored (I’m guessing by 6.5), the odds are NU will win and will represent the North. Their final game is against Colorado. If the Huskers win that as well, they will be 9-3 and 6-2 going into the Big 12 championship game. And what that will mean is that after all the confusion of the North, it will have ended pretty much exactly as many people expected – at least with respect to NU winning it with a decent record.
KANSAS
The Jayhawks have displayed one of the biggest collapses I have ever seen in sports. It’s not to say they were world beaters at 5-0, but they had gone 25-6 over their previous 31 games with a lot of the same players. They were ranked #15. Then five straight losses to teams that (at least at the time KU was ranked) would have been underdogs. As a result, KU has lost seven consecutive games against the spread. And, that’s the good news. The bad news is they have to go to Austin to be served up as the sacrificial lamb next Saturday.
Clearly, Kansas is going to be 5-6. If they win their final game against Missouri, they would be bowl eligible. However, I’m willing to bet real money that they would not get a bowl bid. It’s preposterous IMO to figure on a bowl bid at 6-6 when you have lost six of your last seven games! It might be one thing if the Big 12 only had three or four other bowl eligible teams, but that is far from being the case.
K-State is eligible if they beat Nebraska. And, Nebraska will have more wins than KU even with a loss. Iowa State is eligible already and they play Missouri. Missouri is eligible even if they don’t beat ISU or KU.
Besides that, Texas is going to a bowl. Oklahoma State is going to a bowl. Oklahoma is going to a bowl. Texas Tech is eligible and they stomped KU. Besides, they still play Baylor for a seventh victory. And, if that’s not enough, A&M would actually qualify for a bowl by beating Baylor! What that means is that everybody and their Big 12 sister-in-law is more eligible and/or qualified than Kansas – even if KU beats MU.
MISSOURI AND IOWA STATE
I think it is pretty safe to say MU is going to a bowl if they beat either ISU or KU – both very winnable games. Winning just one will give them seven victories. Iowa State is certain to go to a bowl if they beat MU. If not, it’s a little iffy. The thing you have to remember is that there will be roughly 64 teams in bowls (I can’t keep track of the exact number). There are already that many teams that are bowl eligible. With another game or two to play for everyone, at least another 5-10 are going to qualify. If ISU loses to MU, I doubt they will get a bid. If MU loses both games, I doubt they will get a bid. And, since both ISU and MU can't lose all their remaining games as they play each other, KU has very little chance of a bowl. I would say none unless they beat Texas.
TEXAS
It’s hard to imagine any team could be more of a shoe-in to the national championship game than Texas. It’s irrelevant whether they are ranked #1, #2 or #3. Either Alabama or Florida is going to lose. Texas still plays three games, but the first two are against Kansas and Texas A&M. And, that’s after having just played Central Florida and Baylor. The absolute worst case for them in the Big 12 championship game would be Nebraska coming in with a five game winning streak. But, that would still require NU winning their next two games. Even if they do, Texas is certain to be favored by double digits.
If Texas looks like crap in their last three games (but wins) and TCU beats Wyoming and New Mexico 80-0, I suppose there is a chance in a couple thousand, TCU could get the nod over the Longhorns.
The much better chance for TCU would be if Florida lost to Florida State or Alabama lost to Auburn and the team that lost (either FL or AL were to beat the other one in the SEC championship game). That would set up a TCU vs Texas national championship and then, maybe, the Big 12 could win it.
I didn't understand the whole K-State should be definitely favored last week, and I sure don't agree that the line should be 6.5. I would pound that line in Vegas.
I've got Nebraska as about 12.5 points better than K-State, before even considering home field.
They have played 6 common opponents this year (La-Lafayette, ISU, MU, KU, OU, and Tex Tech).
K-State is 2-4 and -14.0 points against those teams
Nebraska is 4-2 and +11.3 points against those teams
Even considering that the Cats were 2 H, 3 A, 1 N, versus the Huskers being 4 H, 2 A, that only moves it slightly. That is a huge difference against the same opponents.
I don't get the lack of respect for the Huskers. They are a legitimate top 15 caliber team that has a tough road loss against Va Tech, and an 8 turnover loss against Iowa State. I know their offense has struggled, but the numbers show that are pretty dang good and have a top 5 defense nationally.