Bill Snyder on stage I’m going to attempt to delve into the Cats season beyond the obvious. Of course, that’s always my goal. The difference here is that it is only now that K-State’s football team is really on my radar screen. I’m learning much of this for the first time. You will have to forgive me if I deep-sixed KSU after losing to La-Lafayette earlier in the season. Nothing was expected of this team and it looked like expectations were going to be realized in spades. Of course, that’s part of the charm. Bill Snyder + Low Expectations = History of Success.

The number one positive for Kansas State is the fact that they have won four Big 12 games! That’s a pretty significant stat in the North. They are undefeated at home (5-0). They have two very solid skill players – Banks and Thomas. And, they have a coach that is the NCAA godfather of great turnarounds. Of course, we know all that.

I'm pretty sure that nobody - not even the most loyal blind Cat fan - would have thought K-State was going to win the North this season. I can't even imagine Snyder would have given it a second thought. If there were a vote today, Snyder would win Big 12 coach-of-the-year hands down.

DEFENSE

I realize being ranked #43 in total defense and #45 in scoring defense are not exactly world-class stats. However, they are a little misleading. Take away the 66 points allowed to Tech and the 40 to Oklahoma and the club has been very good defensively. I’m not saying you can ignore those games exactly, but you do have to recognize that Tech averages 40ppg and OU is … OU.

For purposes of this discussion, K-State still has Missouri and Nebraska left on their schedule. Neither offense is going to scare anyone. MU is #56 in total offense, NU is #84. So, expect K-State’s defense to make it very difficult on the Tigers and Huskers.

Of the 10 games so far, the Cats held their opponents below their scoring average six times. But, that also is misleading since UCLA and ISU barely scored more than average. On the other hand, five of the other six times, they held their opponent to 10 (or more) points under their average – all at Manhattan. In fact, in three of their last four games, they have held them to 17 (or more) below their average! K-State is at home again this weekend vs Missouri. The line is KSU by 2.5. I’d give up the points and take the Cats.

Finally, K-State is giving up over 13 ppg less than they did in 2008. In fact, over the last five seasons, the club has averaged allowing almost 30 ppg. In 2009, they are giving up 22.5 ppg and less Tech and OU, only 14.6 ppg.

THE FOUR BEST CATEGORIES

K-State excels nationally in four primary categories – Kickoff Returns (#4), Turnover Margin (#6), Rushing Offense (#23) and Rushing Defense (#20).

I thought it would be interesting to view those categories in the context of the last 10 seasons (as far as the NCAA rankings go back). Here is the table. KOR – Kick Off Return Ranking, TOM – Turnover Margin Ranking, ORus – Offensive Rushing Ranking, DRus – Defensive Rushing Ranking. Sum – Sum of the rankings.

 
YearKORTOMORusDRusSum
200946232053
2008249476112306
200790338349255
20061808678245
200584916830273
200429932560217
20033664917126
200254225253
2001114751174
200082342214152

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A few things jump out at me. This season is (by far) the best for the club based on Turnover Margin. It’s easy to say Snyder teaches fundamentals such that a great TOM should be expected – and not too many people are bigger fans of his than I am. However, From 2000-2005, K-State’s average TOM ranking was #59 – absolutely no better than the average Division 1 team. In reality, they were winning in spite of the TOM.

It’s also notable that rushing – both offense and defense was a category that K-State excelled in under Snyder, but had gone by the wayside the past three seasons under Prince. In the seven years under Snyder, they have averaged #22 on both offense and defense. In the three seasons Prince was the head coach, they averaged ranking #82 on offense and #80 on defense. There’s the biggest difference between the two.

Also, by simply adding the rankings of the four categories together, 2009’s team is equivalent to 2002. That club went 11-2. The past five seasons have been very poor with respect to these categories. Not surprisingly, K-State only had one winning season of the five and that was just 7-6.

BANKS AND THOMAS

Thomas leads the Big 12 in rushing, rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns. Banks leads the nation in kickoff returns for touchdowns. Their abilities have made K-State more explosive. That’s not to say the Wildcats are going to light up the scoreboard, but with Snyder preaching defense, field position and ball control, you don’t need a lot of scoring to succeed. Kansas State has proven that so far in 2009.

Should they win their last two games, compete against Texas in the B12 championship game and win a bowl game, this will be remembered as one of the best years in K-State history and Snyder will get some attention for national COY.