Chiefs FootballI just watched Jack Harry go ballistic on Pioli and Haley. Talk about a rant! It’s not that I disagreed with his sentiment – no improvement, bye week was worthless, no team identity, blah, blah, blah. Of course he is right about all that. And, I suppose if you are going to rant, you have to direct it at someone. Who’s a better target than the GM and the coach? It was entertaining, but he overstated at least one thing.
He referred to the Chiefs having only rushed 14 times compared to 39 passes. I believe his quote was, “You will never win that way.” In case you were wondering, 39 to 14 is 73.6% (pass plays). I didn’t think that was such an extreme ratio to make the statement you could “never” win, so I looked at one game only (out of thousands in history). The game was also yesterday. It was Indianapolis. They passed 51 times and ran 18. That’s a pass ratio of 73.9% - slightly greater. Did Indianapolis win? Uh… is the Pope Catholic? So, apparently you can win with that ratio.
Apart from that overstatement, his criticisms were valid. Consequently, what’s the point in analyzing the team? What’s there to look for that would offer any reason to have hope? You know you have severe problems when your best punter is your punter, your best tackler is your punter and your best player is your punter!
Nevertheless, there was one interesting graphic. It showed Jacksonville’s QB ranked #2 and Cassel #4 in rushing – among QBs, of course. First was Green Bay’s QB, third was Tampa Bay’s QB and fifth was Washington’s QB. The total W-L record for those five teams (at the time) was 10-25. It got me to wondering whether teams with QBs who run a lot are typically bad.
Initially, I thought it seemed like a logical assumption. Perhaps the reason they have so much yardage is because they are often scrambling to make a play because 1) their pass blocking sucks or 2) their receivers suck. So, I thought I would take a look at the last seven years prior to 2009 to see if this was true.
Here are all eight seasons and the W-L record for the teams with the five QBs who had the most yardage rushing. As you can see, it’s kind of all over the map – and that means you can’t make anything out of it. The total is 298 wins, 295 losses and 2 ties.
| Year | W-L | Diff. |
| 2009 | 10-25 | -15 |
| 2008 | 30-49-1 | -19 |
| 2007 | 43-37 | +6 |
| 2006 | 43-37 | +6 |
| 2005 | 30-50 | -20 |
| 2004 | 49-31 | +18 |
| 2003 | 45-35 | +10 |
| 2002 | 48-31-1 | +17 |
| Total | 298-295-2 | +3 |
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As is often the case in these situations, I discovered there is nothing cool to report. However, even so, I learned something – that a QB who runs isn’t necessarily indicative of a good or bad team.
Unfortunately, with the Chiefs, there isn’t much else to report on. That’s not likely to change the rest of the season. Unless you want to hear the same sob stories over and over and over again, you have probably turned it off. Every week, I have to recalculate this stat to be sure I haven’t lost my mind. As of today, the Chiefs are 3-30 in their last 33 games.
I think the biggest issue is that fans and some local media personalities are yet to come to grips with just how far Edwards/Peterson let the Chiefs fall at the end of 2008. If we use FootballOutsiders metrics, the Chiefs were 30th overall (in defense-adjusted value over average), 22nd on offense, 28th on defense, 30th on special teams.
And it would have been much, much worse if not for the Pistol. On offense, the Chiefs best unit, the Chiefs were 29th in adjusted line yards, LJ was 45th out of 49 qualifying backs in efficiency, and the Bowe/Bradley connection finished 66th and 77th out of 79 receivers in efficiency.
This highlights several things. Tony Gonzalez was simply the only good player on last year's offense. Trading him was guaranteed to decimate an already awful offense, but Pioli understands better than the fans how far away this team is (and Belichick traded away an elite DT from a contending team; Pioli has even more reason to look long term). Secondly, LJ and Bowe are much, much worse than their perceived value. This is one of the reasons Haley is all over Bowe.
While it now seems the Chiefs may have overestimated their offensive personnel in the offseason, the Chiefs were forced by necessity to once again use the draft to address the gaping talent hole on defense. (During his tenure, Edwards actually oversaw a steep dropoff in the Chiefs defense. Vermeil's last season, 2005, the Chiefs ranked 13th in defensive DVOA. In 2008, they ranked 30th. The raw numbers hide this for two reasons: pace and opponent quality. Part of Edwards' genius is to reduce the number of plays in a football game - it's easy to do this by getting behind and then letting your opponent sit on the ball - which reduces the amount of raw yardage your defense allows. Even in his tenure with the Jets, Edwards only coached one team that was above average defensively on a per play basis.)
While the Chiefs defense is still bad, the Jackson pick may have been as good as it was boring. The Chiefs have risen incrementally from 26th to 20th in run defense this year (DVOA), but the real eye-opener is their power success rate. Last year the Chiefs were dead last in the NFL, allowing opponent's to convert a whopping 81% in short yardage. This year the Chiefs have vaulted to 3rd at 42%. Both the Chiefs dreadfulness last year and their improvement this year are pretty unfathomable.
This year the Chiefs are again a terrible team, but there are other tiny signs of progress. They have moved up to 27th overall (though are slightly worse in comparison to average), 29th on offense, 24th on defense, and 8th on special teams.
Their dramatic improvement on special teams is due to the savvy selection of Succup and, if you want to be optimistic, a newly instituted attention to detail all through the organization. (To compare, Belichick's first New England team in 2000 was bad on both offense and defense, but top 10 in ST. His first Super Bowl team in 2001 was outside the top 10 in both offense and defense, but 6th in ST. The Pats have always emphasized ST under Belichick, even failing to re-sign Super Bowl hero Vinatieri when his leg strength faltered. They then signed Gostkowski knowing that kickoff depth is crucial to field position, and kickoff distance is more consistent year-to-year than field goal accuracy. Succup, like Gostkowski, has a big leg.)