Sabes vs Greinke: Part II by Jonathan Tucker

Stats: The Universal LanguageAt UFR, we have discussed for some time the desire to post analyses done by readers. There are lots of advantages to this, but first and foremost, we want it to be an interactive and participatory site. There are a number of very sharp posters who have the ability to post about something they have an interest in. Naturally, we only ask that they support their position with all the facts available. If you have an interest, send me an email and I will work with you on the project. mmanley@kcstar.com

My name is Jonathan Tucker and I’ve been a reader of UFR since it began a year ago. I’ve always been interested in baseball and statistics, so I think I might have found the right blog.

Recently, I got to thinking about how good Greinke is with respect to former Royal’s pitchers. After Martin did his post on that subject, I decided to zero in on Greinke versus Saberhagen. First of all, Martin came up with Saberhagen #1 and Greinke #2. Their stats are pretty close. Certainly, the biggest difference is that Saberhagen was 23-6 while Greinke was 16-8. Unless that advantage can be mitigated, the rest of what I have to say won’t matter.

THEIR RECORDS

Here is an interesting fact. Saberhagen had seven no decisions. The Royals won every one of them. Greinke had nine no decisions. The club was 1-8 in those games. What does that tell you?

Well, it says one of two things – probably both. 1) The 1989 club scored more runs and more timely runs when Sabes pitched than Greinke. 2) The 1989 club had better relief pitching.

As Martin pointed out in his comparison with Hernandez, Greinke had considerably more WINS lost by the bullpen than he had LOSSES saved by the bullpen. Looking only at the no decisions and ignoring tie situations, Greinke had five wins lost, but one win saved. That’s a net of +4. Again, looking at the no decisions, Saberhagen had three wins lost and three losses saved. That’s a net of +0. Consequently, it could be argued that Greinke’s true record was 21-9 and Saberhagen’s true record was 26-9. That’s not nearly as dramatic of a difference – especially considering Saberhagen started two more games than Greinke.

Because of all that, it’s reasonable to look at the numbers that do not depend upon innings pitched to appreciate.

DEFENSE

I figured we should get this out of the way quickly. Looking at the teams as a whole, they had 114 errors in 1989 to 116 errors in 2009 – a wash. I went through the box scores in which each pitcher pitched and found the number of errors that each pitcher had to deal with throughout the season. Sabes had 22 errors committed when he pitched, Greinke had 21 – another wash.

As has been discussed numerous times on UFR, errors don’t really tell the whole story. A better way to analyze it is BABIP. This is a stat that tells you the batting average (BA) each pitcher has allowed for only balls that are hit into play (BIP).

At least part of the purpose of this stat is to identify the strength of the defense. For example. If two pitchers had identical stats – say opposing batters hit .230 against them, but Pitcher A had a .300 average on balls hit into play and Pitcher B had a .260 average on balls hit into play, you can bet your behind that that Pitcher A’s team was much worse defensively because Pitcher B’s fielders made some outs that otherwise would have been hits.

In this case, Saberhagen had a BA allowed of .217 and Greinke .230. However, their BABIP numbers are drastically different. Saberhagen’s opponents hit .258 on balls in play, Greinke’s opponents hit .307! Greinke was #2 in the AL in batting average against, but dropped all the way to #26 (of 33) in BABIP.

COOL STAT: There have been 273 AL starting pitchers since 1969 who qualify and who have had a BABIP of.307 or more. Greinke is the only one with a BA allowed under .240! That ought to tell you something.

In Royals history, Sabes .217 is #3 (of 122). His BAbip is #16, so he dropped a little. However, Greinke’s .230 is #13 in Royals history, but his .307 is #105!

The point here is that on this basis alone, it is pretty clear that Greinke did not have the fielding support behind him that Sabes had.

PITCHING DATA

Martin already indicated that Saberhagen’s average game score was better than Greinke’s (64.23 – 63.42). That’s too close to call – if for no other reason than they rank #1 and #2 in Royal’s history.

Saberhagen’s quality start ratio was .857 and Greinke’s was .788. That’s a fair difference. Sabes ranks #1 in Royals history while Greinke ranks #3. Appier is #2 in 1993.

ERA was dead even at 2.16. Third place is 2.46! Greinke is #1 with 2.1585, Sabes is #2 at 2.1614. But, remember that in 2009, the average number of runs scored by a team was 4.82 versus only 4.29 in 1989. Based on that, Greinke’s ERA+ (the ratio of pitcher’s ERA with respect to the league ERA) was 203, while Saberhagen’s ERA+ was 180. Third was 179, etc. So, you can see that by factoring in the era for the ERA, Greinke stands out even more.

SO to Walk ratio favors  Greinke. His 4.75 is #1, Sabes 4.49 Is #2.

Batting average, On Base percentage and Slugging percentage are all subject to the era they played in. About the only fair way to do it is to say what the ratio was compared to the league average in both 1989 and 2009. Shown is the league average for the AL for all three in both 1989 and 2009. Also shown are Sabes and Zack’s numbers and the ratio between their numbers and the league average. The lower the ratio – meaning the farther away from the average – the better.

1989

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2009

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As you can see, Saberhagen has a lower equivalent Batting average and On-Base percentage. However, Greinke is well ahead on Slugging percentage.

I don’t have any way to evaluate all Royals pitchers with respect to the league averages on BA, OBP and SLG, but I can recap the all-time Royals’ rankings below.

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Considering the 1989 Royals averaged scoring half a run more than the 2009 Royals when Sabes pitched versus Greinke and considering the 1989 Royals won 27 more games and considering Bret started two more games than Zack, I don’t see how the stats could be any closer. When you factor in the defense, I consider it a draw.