Stats: The Official LanguageStats: The Universal LanguageThis is the fourth (and final) part of my ALCY series since the season ended. I’m going to attempt to tear apart every facet of the battle between Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez. It’s my opinion that they are the only two in this race that matter. Any discussion about C.C. Sabathia is a waste of time. Nevertheless, I will go ahead and very briefly explain why he has no chance. In fact, I can’t even see how he would get a single first place vote.

WHY NO SABATHIA

The argument against Sabathia couldn’t be simpler. He does not have a win advantage versus Hernandez. Therefore, you have to look at all the other variables when comparing the two. On that score, he fails completely. Hernandez has a better ERA, Quality Start percentage, Average Game Score and Winning percentage. That’s a few miles more than enough.

However, Hernandez is also better in SO, SO/BB, HR/9, BA, OBP, SLG, and WHIP. In fact, there isn’t a single stat of any substance where Sabathia leads Hernandez. Hernandez is first or second in seven of the above categories. The best ranking for Sabathia in any of them is third!

I’m not even going to go into the run support for Sabathia.

The point is that if CC can’t beat Felix (and he can’t), then he can’t win. If he can’t win, there is no point in comparing him to Zack.

GREINKE VERSUS HERNANDEZ

This is anything but a slam dunk. I would not be surprised to see a relatively close vote. However, ultimately even if the stats are close, a big majority may arrive at the same conclusion as I do.

BOTH HAVE A “REAL” RECORD OF 21-9

Huh? Yep, you heard it here first (or at least first as far as I know). Technically, Hernandez is 19-5, while Greinke is 16-8. That looks like Greinke is three games worse. However, if you are going to be fair, you should look beyond the final record to what it would have been IF every game they left with the lead were a win and every game they left when behind, they lost.

Here is a table that will show you how mistreated Greinke was by the bullpen.

 

ZackFelix
Record16-819-5
Wins lost by pen+5+2
Losses saved by pen-1-4
Real Record21-921-9

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Right off the top, that’s huge. The reason is because it would be very difficult to overcome Hernandez’ 3-win advantage without this reality. Ignoring ties, Hernandez ranks #1 in wins and #1 in win percentage. Greinke ranks #7 in wins and #8 in win percentage. That would be (historically) impossible to overcome. If the voters pick Greinke, it will set a standard for a new era in how CY awards are determined.

TEAM RECORDS

The other huge disadvantage that Greinke has is the team’s record. Although it should be an advantage, historically it definitely is not. The fact that a pitcher can excel to equivalent levels on a bad team should mean he was better than a pitcher that excelled to the same levels on a good team. The Royals won 65 games while the Mariners won 85.

There have only been three ALCY winners who played on teams with losing records and none close to 65 victories. Once again, this will be an historical vote based on how bad his team is if Greinke wins.

STATS - HEAD TO HEAD

I’m not going to bother with raw numbers. Rather, I will look only at AL ranks. Keep in mind that these rankings are based upon a minimum of 150 IP and 23 GS. That’s a list of 33 pitchers – or roughly two per team.

 ZackFelix
Avg Game Score12
ERA12
Quality Start %21
SO/BB ratio210
HR per 9 innings12
Batting Average21
On Base %13
Slugging %21
Strike Outs24
WHIP13
Innings Pitched53
Complete Games28
Shutouts26

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As you can see, overall, Greinke is superior. From my perspective, the three most important variables above are the first three and Greinke leads two to one. But, he leads in seven of the other 10 as well.

RUN SUPPORT

Believe it or not, the Royals actually scored more runs than the Mariners in 2009. However, the question that matters is how many they scored for each of these two pitchers. It took a little crunching – like everything I do, but as it turns out, it’s what you probably expected to see.

 
 Run Support9-Inn gamesAvg
Greinke10025.483.92
Hernandez11626.524.37

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Also, in case you are interested, the league average is 4.82, so both pitchers were short-changed. It’s just that Zack was short changed considerably more than Felix.

DEFENSE

Obviously, defense is a significant contributor to a pitcher’s ERA over the course of a season. A defensive gem is simply an out. However, a defensive play which a better player could have made is simply a hit. There isn’t any middle ground. That’s why errors don’t tell the whole story. Two teams could have the same number, yet one team could have turned many more outs than the other team.

By most measurements, the Royals were the worst defensive team in the league. And, you can assume base running was near the bottom as well. These weaknesses hurt a pitcher’s chance for a victory and no doubt contributed to Greinke only have 16 wins.

MY VOTE IS FOR…

… Greinke. Hernandez would be a worthy ALCY winner - excellent record on a so-so team. He has 13 straight quality starts and 23 of his last 24! By comparison, Greinke only has QSs in 10 of his last 13 and 19 of his last 24. Hernandez’ QS% is second best in the AL over the last 15 seasons – stuck right in between Pedro Martinez’ 1999 and 2000 seasons – two of the greatest ever by a MLB pitcher. Now, that’s some company!

So, if Felix Hernandez wins the ALCY, I won’t consider it robbery. And, I do expect him to get some votes. Here is my prediction.

 
 1st2nd3rdTotal
Greinke1882116
Hernandez1011285
Sabathia091744
Others0077

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