Stats: The Universal LanguageIt seems everyone is fond of reporting the fact that Greinke leads the league in ERA - among other things, but this analysis is going to take it far beyond that – in some cases, I suspect, where no man has gone before. Of course, that is always my goal. Actually, this will be a four-parter. I can’t imagine any stone about the ALCY issue that I will leave unturned. But, I’ll tell you one thing right off the top…
… CC Sabathia has zero chance to win IMO. Of course, the last time I said something like that it was that Xavier Henry wasn’t coming to KU. Nevertheless, I’m very confident of this one. Unlike depending on a wishy washy kid for my prediction to be correct, I’m depending on the sound reasoning of qualified professionals to make a rational judgment.
I’ll get into why Sabathia has no chance later, but for now the focus is to try to determine what makes a Cy Young winner in the first place. Of course, it means being the best pitcher in your league in any given year. However, what goes into the determination of “best”?
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Wednesday: Greinke with respect to Royals history.
Thursday: ALCY: Royal Screw Jobs
Friday: Greinke vs Hernandez
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August 28: The Cy Young: What will it take to win it?
August 29: The Cy Young: What will it take to win it? Part 2
August 30: The Cy Young: Greinke vs The Field: Part 3
In the previous posts on this subject, I analyzed all former ALCY winners in a variety of ways compared to Greinke. Now that the season is over, I thought it would warrant a re-visit. I expanded my data base and have come up with some new insights.
There have been 43 ALCY winners – including four relievers. Of the remaining 39, some of them ranked high in one thing, some in another. The big question to determine is which stat meant the most to voters. I can tell you without hesitation that the #1 stat was total wins!
Wins are the most important variable historically. Of the remaining major stats, W/L percentage is second most important, ERA third and Strike Outs fourth. Those seem to be the categories that everyone looks at – even if they look at nothing else.
Here is the average rank for each of the major categories for each ALCY winner. I’ve also included Quality Start percentage (QS%), Strikeout/Walk ratio (SO/BB) and Home Runs per 9 innings (HR9).
| Category | Avg. Rank | |
| 1 | Wins | 1.51 |
| 2 | W/L % | 2.87 |
| 3 | ERA | 3.90 |
| 4 | QS% | 4.90 |
| 5 | SOs | 5.54 |
| 6 | SO/BB | 7.59 |
| 7 | HR9 | 10.67 |
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Make no mistake about it. Historically, wins are the most important consideration. The bigger question is whether that has changed in recent years. The answer is that it really hasn’t. The average rank for Wins is lower than the average rank for ERA for any period you want to pick – assuming you pick at least 10 years.
Shown are the number of times out of 39 that the ALCY winner ranked first in the league in each category.
| Category | Ranked #1 | |
| 1 | Wins | 25 |
| 2 | W/L % | 13 |
| 3 | ERA | 17 |
| 4 | QS% | 13 |
| 5 | SOs | 9 |
| 6 | SO/BB | 9 |
| 7 | HR9 | 6 |
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The only thing that is any different from earlier is that more ERA leaders have won than W/L% leaders. What that means is that the overall average in the previous table was skewed by some low ERA rankings. There are only seven former ALCY’ers that ranked #5 or worse in W/L%, but there were 12 former ALCY’ers that ranked #5 or worse in ERA!
THE BIG STAT
Here is the big stat for this post. There has never been an ALCY’er rank #5 or below for total wins. Greinke is… (close your eyes if you have a weak stomach)… #7 – and even that is tied with two others. I’ll talk more about that later too, but this gives you something to ponder in the meantime. Here is a table showing the total win rank for all 39 ALCY’ers. As I mentioned before, 25 of the 39 rank #1 (or are tied for #1).
| Rank for Total Wins | # of times |
| Rank #1 | 25 |
| Rank #2 | 10 |
| Rank #3 | 2 |
| Rank #4 | 2 |
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Ok, so there have been two former ALCY’ers that ranked #4 in wins. Greinke is #7. Can that chasm be bridged? Well, possibly, but it’s actually worse than it sounds. Both of those #4’s had extenuating circumstances.
Roger Clemens, 1991
Clemens won 18 games and was fourth in total wins. He was two behind the leaders (20). So, he won 90% as many as anyone else. Greinke has won 16 and the leaders have won 19. That’s 84% as many.
Additionally, Clemens was coming off a 1990 campaign in which he was totally screwed out of the ALCY. In part 3 of this series, I will evaluate some examples of that happening. But, suffice it to say that 1990 was one of them. Clemens should have won without question and any astute baseball data guru knows it.
As it turns out, Bob Welch won with just barely over half the votes. Clemens had most of the rest. Welch won it because he had more wins – nothing else.
Also, despite finishing #4 in total wins in 1991, Clemens finished #1 in ERA and #1 in Strikeouts. Greinke is #1 in ERA, but #2 in Strikeouts.
I'm of the opinion that sentiment was for Clemens in 1991 which helped overcome being #4 in wins.
Pedro Martinez, 2000
Martinez also ended with 18 victories and also trailed two leaders at 20 – the same as Clemens. Martinez, not only led the league in ERA and Strikeouts as Clemens did, but he also led just about everything else – first in HR9 innings, first in SO/BB, first in Quality Start Percentage. I should point out that Greinke was first in one of those last three categories and second in the other two.
So, Martinez was hands down the most dominant pitcher. He just didn’t get as many wins – partly because he only started 29 games. His winning percentage was actually #2. Greinke’s winning percentage is #8.
THE COOL STAT
Martinez domination can be summed up in this simple stat. The three guys with more wins than him had ERAs of 4.11, 4.14 and 4.35. Pedro’s ERA?... 1.74. If that’s not one of the more shockingly cool stats you will read, please tell me where I can find the others.
And so, not only was Martinez the best in 2000, but he was coming off a season before when he was possibly the best pitcher in MLB history! That kind of aura doesn’t go away easily. Consequently, he finished #4 in total wins, but a unanimous ALCY winner in 2000.
The point I’m making is that the two worst cases (#4 in total wins) in ALCY history have very unique circumstances associated with them. Of course, Greinke has his own unique circumstances which I will get into, but the most important variable (by far - Wins) historically would seem intent upon leaving him CYless.
AND IF YOU NEEDED MORE EVIDENCE
Even though no ALCY'er has ever been ranked worse than #4, there are glaring examples of low ERA rankings.
In 1969, Jim Londborg was #18 in ERA, but won. Why? He was #1 in wins. In 1983, La Marr Hoyt was #18 in ERA, but won. Guess where he ranked in wins. In 1993, Jack McDowell was #11 in ERA and, once again, won the ALCY by having the most wins.
Clearly, the voters can forgive a low ERA, but they have yet been unable to forgive having a low total # of wins. Greinke's 16 would be two fewer than any ALCY'er has ever had in a full season.