"Do not hire a man who does your work for money, but him who does it for love of it."While the Royals continue to flounder, the Nationals remain smoking hot. Eight wins in a row for the Nats, who have made more in-season personnel moves than any other team in baseball. In other words, despite starting the season 17-46, Washington hasn't thrown in the towel. Mike Rizzo has continued to shuffle the deck, until he's found a combination that seems to be working. At least for now. As a result, the Royals have now moved within 3.5 games of the Nationals for the worst record in baseball. Some of those tongue-in-cheek passages I've written before about the Royals' charge for the top pick in the 2010 draft suddenly don't seem so funny. This is now serious business.Based on some questions I've been getting via e-mail and some callers (and studio hosts) I've heard on the radio, there is a lot of confusion and misinformation out there about the Royals' draft scenarios. This is a big week in that regard, so I thought I'd run through these scenarios. First of all, let's talk about the top prizes available with the a possible No. 1 pick. There could be a pair of super-elite prospects available in the next draft. Or there could be none. Let me explain.
Wunderkind Bryce Harper, the You Tube star and SI cover boy, is likely to be the top talent on the board. After leaving school following his junior year in high school, he is headed for Southern Nevada, a community college. To become eligible there, he is going to have to pass his GED, which he will be presumably be taking in the near future. If he passes, which seems likely based on what I know about the kid, he will be eligible in the 2010 draft.
I feel fairly confident in provisionally proclaiming him to be a clear-cut No. 1 pick and not just product of the Internet hype machine. He's a lefty-hitting catcher who throws 96 MPH and cranks 500-foot homers that would make Josh Hamilton say, "Wow!" In Tom Verducci's piece on Harper, he quoted a scout's assessment of where the 16-year-old would have gone in the past draft:
""Top two," he says. "And that's taking nothing away from the guys in the draft this year. He's honestly that good. He is a once-in-a-generation talent."
Of course, the scout mentions the top "two', which brings us to San Diego State fireballer Stephen Strasburg, who has become the latest hurler proclaimed as the greatest college pitcher of all time. More than one scout says he's ready for the big leagues right now. However, the Scott Boras client is said to be seeking $50 million.
That's quite an investment for a player that hasn't thrown a single pitch in a professional uniform. As a result, the Nationals' negotiations with Strasburg have been painfully slow. There is a gathering consensus that Washington isn't going to get a deal done and Strasburg may be headed down the indy league path or even to Japan. He'll then re-enter next year's draft.
So, as I say, there could be two no-brainer No. 1-type picks in 2010. But if Strasburg does sign, which we'll find out some time in the next week, then he's off the board. And if Harper can't nail that GED, then he's gone, too. Which would make all of this moot.
However, if Strasburg signs and Harper gains eligibility, then there will be one super stud from which to choose. That would make the bounty for finishing with the worst record that much more valuable. While there are never any sure things in the baseball draft, if the Royals at least have a no-brainer pick, then we can at least take solace in the fact that they would be taking the same player that every other team in their position would select. And if he lives up to his potential, then the Royals would have a Pujols/ARod type talent that could be the basis for the next golden era of KC baseball.
However, if Strasburg doesn't sign, then the waters are muddied. If the Royals were to land the top pick, then they'd have an awful tough choice to make. Strasburg or Harper? That's not an easy call. And, by the way, the Nationals would not automatically pick first as compensation for not inking Strasburg, as I've heard suggested. The rule on compensatory picks for unsigned players awards teams the same draft slot PLUS ONE. Thus, the Nationals would get second choice in 2010.
Also, if the Royals manage to nudge out Washington for the first pick, the Nationals would end up with the second and third pick. If that happens and the Royals pick Harper, then Strasburg would slide all the way to fourth, likely to his hometown San Diego Padres. That's because a player can't be re-drafted by a team that fails to sign him unless he signs a waiver permitting them to do so. If he doesn't sign with the Nats this week, then I don't see that happening.
If the Royals don't finish with the worst record AND the Nats don't sign Strasburg, then KC would be guaranteed a shot at the former Aztec. In that scenario, the Nats would have the first two picks, but assuming Strasburg doesn't sign a waiver, they'd be taking Harper and somebody else. KC then could nab Strasburg at No. 3. Unless of course the Royals pass on him because of the price tag. Then, realistically, the Royals will never again land the generation-level prospects because those guys (and their agents) know who they are and if $50 million is what is takes to get them into the organization, then that's what it takes. This could change after the next round of negotiations for a collective bargaining agreement, but right now that's the reality of the system.
So, to summarize, we're rooting for two things. First, it would be a tremendous boost for the Royals if Washington can't come to terms with Strasburg. Then it's irrelevant whether or not they surpass the Nats for the worst record. As long as another team doesn't drop below the Royasl, KC will have a shot at him. We'll know the answer to that by midnight, next Monday.
If Strasburg does sign, then we have no choice but to root for the Royals to finish with the worst record in the majors. Bryce Harper ... from all available evidence ... is THE prize in the next draft. He has the potential to be the high-impact talent and personality that could define the franchise in the next decade.
That leaves us with the Royals' unfinished business from the 2009 draft. First off, as one of my commenters noted, the team does not necessarily have to sign top pick Aaron Crow by Aug. 17. Because of a special ruling on players that leave after their junior year and spend a season playing in an independent league, those persons are not subject to the signing deadline, Aug. 17 in this year's case. However, suffice to say, the sooner Crow signs, the better. After facing only indy league hitters since he left Mizzou in the spring of 2008, Crow needs to get into affiliated ball. He can't afford to miss another season. He needs to get his ass in a rookie league uniform, get up to snuff, and then head out to High-A. If he sits out again -- and it pains me to write this of a former Tiger -- he's a freaking moron. And a greedy one, at that.
Also, there is the matter of third-round pick Wil Myers, a first-round talent that slid on draft day because of a belief that he was seeking well-above slot money to sign as he'd just as soon head off to college. When the Royals have control of a player like this and have burned an early-round pick on him, they can't afford to let him get away. And, as a third-rounder, there wouldn't be a compensatory pick involved. This is the most pressing task for the Royals over the next week.
So there are obviously a plethora of possibilities regarding the next draft. The Royals could end up with a future superstar, or they could end up sorting through a bunch of other promising but less-enthralling prospects. I know what I'm rooting for.
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