The future.When it comes to analyzing football, I've always been obsessed with offensive line play. It might seem strange that a sports writer so seemingly preoccupied with numbers would be so enthralled by an area of the game in which there is almost no data with which to work. However, it's precisely that lack of data that keeps me so interested. It's my opinion that the line as a unit is the second most important part of an offense after the quarterback. Yet, there is no objective way to measure exactly what the five large individuals up front do on any given play. However, efforts at approximating what linemen do have improved exponentially over the last two decades, thanks to Stats, Inc. and, more recently, Football Outsiders. With that in mind, let's take a quick tour over where the Chiefs' offensive line has been and where it might be going.
Football Outsiders has two key stats to measure offensive line units. The first, Adjusted Line Yards (ALY), measures how much of a team's yards-per-rush is due to the blockers. The second, Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR), is a measure of pass blocking that is adjusted for context. (Everything FO does is adjusted for context.) What I've done is create an overall line rating by using the following steps:
1. establish league-average figures for ALY and ASR
2. compare each team's totals to that season's league averages
3. because there is a much greater variance in ASR, those measurements have been heavily regressed to the mean. This puts the run-block rating and pass-protection rating on an equal scale, ie., they have equal correlation to the overall rating
4. averaged the two measurements to establish an Overall Line Rating (OLR)
Here are the top 10 single-season OLR figures for the current decade:
Year | Team | OLR |
| 2004 | IND | 1.1871 |
| 2008 | DEN | 1.1866 |
| 2005 | IND | 1.1746 |
| 2004 | GB | 1.1697 |
| 2000 | IND | 1.1654 |
| 2008 | NO | 1.1571 |
| 2001 | NYJ | 1.1491 |
| 2006 | IND | 1.1490 |
| 2001 | SF | 1.1434 |
| 2005 | CIN | 1.1407 |
The prevalence of Indianapolis on this list is indicative of two things. First, the Colts have consistently put together very good offensive lines. Second, despite my efforts at regressing Adjusted Sack Rate, Peyton Manning preternatural ability to get the ball out of his hands cannot be underestimated. He makes his offensive line look better than it is.
Despite the not cracking the 10-best list for the 2000s, the Chiefs have had some excellent offensive line performances:
YEAR | Team | OLR | Rank |
| 2000 | KC | 1.005 | 18 |
| 2001 | KC | 1.054 | 5 |
| 2002 | KC | 1.059 | 5 |
| 2003 | KC | 1.101 | 2 |
| 2004 | KC | 1.077 | 6 |
| 2005 | KC | 1.072 | 5 |
| 2006 | KC | .991 | 19 |
| 2007 | KC | .902 | 32 |
| 2008 | KC | .965 | 26 |
During the team's tremendous run of offensive success, the Chiefs consistently fielded a top-five offensive line. But when age and injuries began to take their toll, the decline came hard and fast. After bottoming out in 2007, the team made some modest strides last season. Before we try to wager a guess on what may come this season, let's look at the team rankings for the decade in the aggregate:
TEAM | OLR | RANK |
| IND | 1.1260 | 1 |
| DEN | 1.0757 | 2 |
| GB | 1.0641 | 3 |
| NYG | 1.0409 | 4 |
| NE | 1.0375 | 5 |
| WAS | 1.0359 | 6 |
| NO | 1.0305 | 7 |
| NYJ | 1.0297 | 8 |
| KC | 1.0250 | 9 |
| CIN | 1.0239 | 10 |
| SD | 1.0233 | 11 |
| SF | 1.0204 | 12 |
| TEN | 1.0131 | 13 |
| PHI | 1.0117 | 14 |
| BAL | 1.0116 | 15 |
| JAC | 1.0046 | 16 |
| MIN | 1.0013 | 17 |
| STL | 1.0005 | 18 |
| OAK | 0.9991 | 19 |
| CHI | 0.9986 | 20 |
| PIT | 0.9924 | 21 |
| TB | 0.9915 | 22 |
| CAR | 0.9914 | 23 |
| SEA | 0.9901 | 24 |
| DAL | 0.9861 | 25 |
| MIA | 0.9860 | 26 |
| DET | 0.9786 | 27 |
| ATL | 0.9759 | 28 |
| ARI | 0.9743 | 29 |
| BUF | 0.9719 | 30 |
| CLE | 0.9707 | 31 |
| HOU | 0.9589 | 32 |
Despite the last couple of years, the Chiefs still sport one of the 10-best o-lines for the decade.
OK, to move from the team level to the individual level, let's compare the primary components of the Chiefs' line for the last couple of seasons.
2007 | ||||||
| Player | GS | SACK | PEN | RUSH | Age/Draft | |
| LT-Damion McIntosh | 15 | 7.5 | 3 | 32 | 30/3rd | |
| LG-Brian Waters | 16 | 4.5 | 1 | 18 | 30/none | |
| C-Casey Wiegmann | 16 | 3.0 | 3 | 21 | 34/none | |
| RG-John Welbourn | 16 | 4.0 | 5 | 30 | 31/4th | |
| RT-Terry/Turley | 13 | 13.0 | 9 | 30 | 32/2nd | 32/1st |
| 2008 | ||||||
| Player | GS | SACK | PEN | RUSH | Age/Draft | |
| LT-Branden Albert | 15 | 4.5 | 1 | 15 | 24/1st | |
| LG-Brian Waters | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 12 | 31/none | |
| C-Rudy Niswanger | 15 | 3.5 | 3 | 27 | 25/none | |
| RG-Jones/Smith | 17 | 3.0 | 2 | 30 | 27/4th | 27/3rd |
| RT-Damion McIntosh | 16 | 7.0 | 3 | 7 | 31/3rd | |
GS - games started; SACK - sacks allowed; PEN - penalties committed; RUSH - directional rushing rank; Age/Draft -- player age, round drafted
For all those who want to bag on Damion McIntosh, his move to the right side in 2008 helped to stablize what had been an unbelievably gaping hole in 2007. No, McIntosh is no All-Pro but the Chiefs were stronger running to his side last season than any other spot in the line, he committed far fewer penalties than the Chris Terry/Kyle Turley duo and was a more effective pass blocker.
By the way, the RUSH ranks are based on the directional rushing stats from Football Outsiders. My use here is a complete bastardization of the metric -- they are not meant to be applied to individual linemen. But I've done it anyway, just as an added data point.
Besides the move of McIntosh, Branden Albert was a huge improvement at the vital left tackle spot and if he remains healthy, he should be the anchor of the Chiefs' line for years to come. Brian Waters, probably due to the improved talent around him, was better last season than the season before. And while Rudy Niswanger was a mild step down from Casey Wiegmann, he didn't embarrass himself. (Wiegmann did go on to have the best season of his career in Denver last year.) Right guard continues to be a problem.
Overall, though you have to give Carl and Herm credit for trying. The 2007 line was not only awful, but it was old. Last season's group was better and younger.
Here are the candidates to man this year's line, broken into tiers.
- Brandan Albert: Can only get better from here.
- Brian Waters: He'll be back in the fold soon, I predict. Once he is, he's too much of a pro to be a distraction.
- Eric Ghiaciuc: Started 42 games for Cincinnati over the last four years. He could be out Rudy Niswanger or at least provide quality depth.
- Mike Goff: A solid vet who has started 147 games in the NFL. He plug the gaping hole at right guard.
- Damion McIntosh: Seriously, Chiefs fans, you could do worse.
---- - Rudy Niswanger: Battle between he and Ghiaciuc could come down to who is more comfortable in the shotgun.
- Wade Smith: A journeyman with value as a reserve, which he will be in 2009.
- Herb Taylor: A sixth-round pick who got plenty of game experience last season. If he develops, he could push McIntosh.
--- - Colin Brown: Rookie fifth-rounder out of Mizzou. He's big. Probably headed for practice squad, but has potential.
- Brian De La Puente: A prospect, picked up off waivers last season.
- Edwin Harrison: Undrafted guard who has yet to appear in an NFL game.
- Barry Richardson: A developing player with limited upside.
- Tavares Washington: Another undrafted player for special teams or to fill out the depth chart.
--- - Jean-Philippe Darche: Veteran long snapper.(EDIT: but not for the Chiefs. He was released. The roster I had was not up to date.)
Unlike the near-complete shuffle of last season's line, the Chiefs' have more continuity up front entering 2009. That's important. It's more important to have talent and the additions of Ghiaciuc and Goff give them an upgrade in that department. If the group coalesces and adapts to Todd Haley's system, I could easily see them improving at least another six places in OLR this season. However, there there is some age on this group beyond Albert, so the improvement of the younger guys is important and this will need to be an area of focus in a future draft.
Your analysis is flawed because it combined "adjusted line rushing yards" with "adjusted sack rate" to determine the overall "offensive line rank."
Having a mobile qb in thigpen, and the spread offense will decrease the sack rate making it appear as if the offensive line was more effective than 2007, when actually the move to spread was due to the inability of the offensive line to pass protect in a conventional 'under center' offense.
In 2008, the chiefs gave up 13 sacks in 4 preseason games in a conventional 'pro-style' offense. That would avg out to 52 sacks in a 16 game season....an improvement over the 2007 regular season sack given up of 57, but still far worse than the actual 2008 sacks given up of 36.
The chiefs officially switched to the spread offense (and the Tyler thigpen show in their 6th game against the Titans. Prior to that, in a conventional style offense they gave up 17 sacks. At that pace(3.4 sacks/game), they would have given up 54 sacks for the season. As you can se, that is pretty close to what they gave up for the 2007 season, and what they were averaging for the 2008 pre-season.
Once the chiefs switched to the spread offense, they gave up 20 sacks in 11 games (1.81 sacks/game). That is a significant diffrence.
Obviously, the longer an offensive line plays as a unit, the better they perform...but it is undeniable that switching to a spread offense improved pass protection as well as having a mobile qb under center (thigpen) who's 386 rushing yrds would have helped the lines "ALR" which would have falsely inflated the "OLR."