Is he the best?Is he the best?I don’t have a vested interest. I only want to have an educated, objective opinion. And, my opinion is that apart from any other bias, I would have chosen Halladay over Greinke to start the All-Star game. Let me begin by saying that Greinke has had a fantastic first half the year (duh) – better than the first halves of any of the previous three KC Cy Young winners – which I have pointed out before on this blog. He’s also the only star – even the only good (with the possible exception of Meche) player the Royals have. As a Royals’ fan, I’d be especially happy to see him start the All-Star game. However, the manager has to choose who is most likely to get six outs. That’s his only concern.

Here are the two player’s stats side by side.

GS-Average Game Score. QS-Quality Starts/Starts

 
PitcherRecERASO/BBHRBAGSQS
Halladay10-32.856.2410.25360.212/17
Greinke10-52.126.144.24562.815/18

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If you only look at these stats, you have to give the edge to Greinke. He is superior (albeit not by much) in every category except losses – and he can hardly be faulted for that! However, even so, they are close enough that some nuance, such as how they do in their first two innings of every game, could tip the scales.

My contention is that the more important issue is… “What have you done for me lately?” Now, I’m not claiming that Halladay has been a world-beater in the second quarter of the season, but he’s been superior to Greinke by any reasonable measurement IMO. Since mid-May.

 
PitcherRecERASO/BBHRBAGSQS
Halladay3-22.765.705.26359.46/9
Greinke3-43.526.224.28653.77/9

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Keep in mind that Greinke’s Game Score has only been above 58 one time in his last eight games. However, it was above 58 nine times in his first ten games! Clearly, he isn’t the same dominating pitcher he was in the first quarter of the season.

And, so that is my primary argument. If I finished this post with that, I could satisfactorily argue that Halladay should start. However...

… after I was all done with this, I thought “what the heck”, let’s see what they both were in their last four games (last 1/8 of the season). If you (me) are going to argue the “What have you done for me lately?” issue, then let’s look at what is really “lately”. Here they are again.

 
PitcherRecERASO/BBHRBAGSQS
Halladay0-24.303.603.30449.52/4
Greinke2-22.737.671.30752.84/4

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Just as Greinke was superior on the season and Halladay was superior over the last fourth of the season, Greinke has been the better pitcher in the last eighth of the season.

So, I’m correcting myself. Greinke should have started and despite my best intention to prove otherwise, there is more evidence to suggest Maddon got it wrong rather than right.

This reminds me of something I heard on the radio on the way home from work last night. Somebody was making the argument that statistics are only used to prove what you otherwise believe. That is, of course, 100% bull $hit in my world. I generally have an idea what I think the results will be, but if they prove otherwise, they prove otherwise. Normally, I would have entitled this post Greinke got shafted (or something like that), but I decided to leave it the way I originally wrote it so that you can see the process of what happens when the stats prove a preconceived idea to be wrong. Stats are (to me) the holy grail. As I’ve said before, you don't mess wiff da stats!  

 

 

EDIT

After reading a couple responses, I thought I would add these pieces of data to the debate.

1) Probably the most important issue of all when two players are this close. How do they do in the first inning or second innings of games? Shown are runs per 9 innings.

 

 

Inning 1

Inning 2

Greinke

3.50

2.00

Halladay

4.23

3.18

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2) This is possibly an important point. Halladay missed 17 days and has returned for only three starts. Toronto has lost all three games.

3) A valid counter argument is that Halladay’s opponents average being +1.94 games over .500 while Greinke’s opponents average being -2.50 games under .500.

Still, all in all, I’d give the nod to Greinke.

 

DOUBLE EDIT:

What about Josh Beckett as MDG asked below?

Obviously, that’s the problem with starting from an assumption and working backwards. I believe that 99% of the time, I start from the correct point and work forwards. In this case, that would have been to look at all the pitchers that were remotely worthy of starting the All-Star game for the AL. If I had of done that, instead of knee-jerking a post on Greinke vs Halladay, I would have included Beckett… and I should have.

After looking at his numbers, a strong case can be made that he should be starting!

I’m going to reproduce the half season (games played to date), the quarter season (roughly the last nine games played) and eighth season (the last four games played... with all three pitchers.

You can decide for yourself. But, if you put any emphasis at all on “what have you done for me lately”, you simply cannot overlook Beckett.

GS-Average Game Score. QS-Quality Starts/Starts

 

Pitcher

Rec

ERA

SO/BB

HR

BA

GS

QS

Halladay

10-3

2.85

6.24

10

.253

60.2

12/17

Greinke

10-5

2.12

6.14

4

.245

62.8

15/18

Beckett

11-3

3.35

3.14

10

.230

57.2

13/18

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Based on the first half the season, you have to go Greinke, Halladay, Beckett.

 

Pitcher

Rec

ERA

SO/BB

HR

BA

GS

QS

Halladay

3-2

2.76

5.70

5

.263

59.4

6/9

Greinke

3-4

3.52

6.22

4

.286

53.7

7/9

Beckett

7-1

1.93

5.36

5

.187

66.7

7/9

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Based on the second quarter of the season, you have to go with Beckett, Halladay, Greinke.

 

Pitcher

Rec

ERA

SO/BB

HR

BA

GS

QS

Halladay

0-2

4.30

3.60

3

.304

49.5

2/4

Greinke

2-2

2.73

7.67

1

.307

52.8

4/4

Beckett

3-0

2.12

7.33

3

.198

66.0

3/4

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Based on the last eighth of the season, you have to go with Beckett, Greinke, Halladay.