Brian Vickers 5th PoleI’m picking Jimmie Johnson in Chicagoland tomorrow night. Should he win, it will be his third victory of the season – which would tie him with Kyle Busch and Mark Martin and likely move him into second in the points race – just behind Tony Stewart and just ahead of Jeff Gordon. I’ve picked the winner 3 of 18 races so far… so obviously, JJ won’t win it. But, you never know. I’m batting 1,000 in the last… one race.
Kyle Busch is the defending champion of the Lifelock.com 400. I pick him to finish fourth. This is the second consecutive race KyB was the defending champion and the second consecutive race I picked him fourth. As you know, he was leading into the final lap last week at Daytona before he spun himself out and lost to Stewart. I say “spun himself” because that’s exactly what he did.
Shortly after the race he accepted that fact that Stewart had done nothing wrong when their cars touched and KyB crashed. However, yesterday he decided that TS was out of line. I can tell you who is out of line and that is KyB. He was out of his line on the track. Stewart got a nose past him and Busch cut him off anyway – causing his own car to spin out. That’s 100% his own fault. I don’t like Busch, but that has nothing to do with it. You won’t find a single driver IMO who would agree with him that TS was at fault.
Brian Vickers is on the pole this week – for the fifth time this season. That’s a lot of poles for someone who hasn’t won – or even finished better than fifth in any race this year. I thought it would be worthwhile to look at this season’s pole winners and where they ended up in their respective races. Vickers’ average is 12.5. The average for the other 14 poles is 9.2.
| Driver | Poles | Finishes |
| Brian Vickers | 5 | 10,15,9,16,?? |
| Tony Stewart | 3 | 1,5,1 |
| Mark Martin | 3 | 1,12,32 |
| David Reutimann | 2 | 11,18 |
| Kyle Busch | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Newman | 1 | 2 |
| Jeff Gordon | 1 | 4 |
| Matt Kenseth | 1 | 10 |
| Martin Truex | 1 | 11 |
| Juan Pablo Montoya | 1 | 20 |
| AVERAGE | 9.9 |
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MANLEY VERSUS VEGAS IN CHICAGO
| Name | Rating | Vegas | Rank | |
| 1 | Jimmie Johnson | 279.37 | 9-2 | 1 |
| 2 | Tony Stewart | 271.85 | 11-2 | 2 |
| 3 | Jeff Gordon | 252.30 | 7-1 | 4 |
| 4 | Kyle Busch | 250.40 | 6-1 | 3 |
| 5 | Kevin Harvick | 240.20 | 16-1 | 9 |
| 6 | Ryan Newman | 204.51 | 18-1 | 12 |
| 7 | Brian Vickers | 194.60 | 25-1 | 13.5 |
| 8 | Dale Earnhardt | 179.60 | 30-1 | 15 |
| 9 | Matt Kenseth | 171.40 | 15-1 | 8 |
| 10 | Clint Bowyer | 163.93 | 45-1 | 17 |
| 11 | Kurt Busch | 158.60 | 11-1 | 6 |
| 12 | Mark Martin | 147.75 | 14-1 | 7 |
| 13 | Jeff Burton | 142.60 | 35-1 | 16 |
| 14 | Carl Edwards | 140.50 | 10-1 | 5 |
| 15 | Greg Biffle | 137.40 | 17-1 | 10.5 |
| 16 | Reed Sorenson | 123.27 | ||
| 17 | Denny Hamlin | 121.60 | 17-1 | 10.5 |
| 18 | Casey Mears | 119.93 | ||
| 19 | Martin Truex | 118.07 | 50-1 | 18 |
| 20 | Kasey Kahne | 107.20 | 25-1 | 13.5 |
| 21 | Bill Elliott | 105.67 | ||
| 22 | Jamie McMurray | 94.33 | ||
| 23 | Michael Waltrip | 94.10 | ||
| 24 | Elliott Sadler | 89.05 | ||
| 25 | Dave Blaney | 82.45 | ||
| 26 | Bobby Labonte | 76.30 | ||
| 27 | Robby Gordon | 75.90 | ||
| 28 | David Stremme | 73.60 | ||
| 29 | Joe Nemechek | 72.95 | ||
| 30 | John Andretti | 64.40 |
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The rest of the drivers above who are not rated by the line represent the “field” at 15-1.
This week there will be one SUPER PICK at stake. In order to have a super pick, a driver must differ 9+ ranking positions between myself and Vegas. I pick Carl Edwards #14 vs Vegas #5. For the season, Vegas and I are tied 9-9 on Super Picks.
LIFELOCK.COM 400
The formula factors in wins, top-fives, top-tens, did-not-finishes and average finishing position based on previous races at this track only. Also factored in is pole position and season ranking. I gave different weights to each of the categories. The formula is below the table.
I predict Johnson to win, Edwards to finish 14th, Martin 12th and Bowyer to finish 10th.
R-Races, W-Wins, T5–Top-5, T10–Top-10, DF–Did not finish, AF–Average Finish, P-Pole position, SR-Season Ranking.
All stats based on the last 10 years only and require a minimum number of races at this track.
| Name | R | W | T5 | T10 | DF | AF | P | SR | Rating | |
| 1 | Jimmie Johnson | 7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 8.1 | 3 | 3 | 279.37 |
| 2 | Tony Stewart | 8 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 10.2 | 32 | 1 | 271.85 |
| 3 | Jeff Gordon | 8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 10.1 | 7 | 2 | 252.30 |
| 4 | Kyle Busch | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7.8 | 6 | 8 | 250.40 |
| 5 | Kevin Harvick | 8 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 7.4 | 28 | 26 | 240.20 |
| 6 | Ryan Newman | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17.6 | 12 | 7 | 204.51 |
| 7 | Brian Vickers | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9.2 | 1 | 16 | 194.60 |
| 8 | Dale Earnhardt | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15.2 | 13 | 21 | 179.60 |
| 9 | Matt Kenseth | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9.8 | 33 | 10 | 171.40 |
| 10 | Clint Bowyer | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13.7 | 5 | 16 | 163.93 |
| 11 | Kurt Busch | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 17.2 | 22 | 4 | 158.60 |
| 12 | Mark Martin | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14.0 | 14 | 13 | 147.75 |
| 13 | Jeff Burton | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19.2 | 23 | 15 | 142.60 |
| 14 | Carl Edwards | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23.5 | 25 | 5 | 140.50 |
| 15 | Greg Biffle | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12.8 | 35 | 9 | 137.40 |
| 16 | Reed Sorenson | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16.7 | 11 | 28 | 123.27 |
| 17 | Denny Hamlin | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.7 | 4 | 6 | 121.60 |
| 18 | Casey Mears | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 20.2 | 38 | 22 | 119.93 |
| 19 | Martin Truex | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21.3 | 21 | 24 | 118.07 |
| 20 | Kasey Kahne | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 29.4 | 15 | 12 | 107.20 |
| 21 | Bill Elliott | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21.0 | 8 | 43 | 105.67 |
| 22 | Jamie McMurray | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23.5 | 30 | 19 | 94.33 |
| 23 | Michael Waltrip | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 26.2 | 37 | 33 | 94.10 |
| 24 | Elliott Sadler | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 22.1 | 34 | 23 | 89.05 |
| 25 | Dave Blaney | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 26.9 | 18 | 41 | 82.45 |
| 26 | Bobby Labonte | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23.1 | 42 | 27 | 76.30 |
| 27 | Robby Gordon | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22.8 | 41 | 34 | 75.90 |
| 28 | David Stremme | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23.7 | 36 | 32 | 73.60 |
| 29 | Joe Nemechek | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 26.9 | 31 | 40 | 72.95 |
| 30 | John Andretti | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19.8 | 40 | 36 | 64.40 |
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Rating=(((Win*10)+(T5*10)+(T10*5)+(DF*3))/Races*10)+2*(44-Avg.Finish)+(44-Pole)+(44-Season Rank)+Races.
To give you an idea of how this weighting works out, take an average driver who has participated in half the races over 10 years and has had an average number of wins, T5s, T10s, DNFs who also has an average finish in the previous races at this track, average pole position and average season rank. His totals might look like this…
| Pts | |
| Experience at this track | 10 |
| Wins+T5s+T10s+DNFs at this track | 40 |
| Average finish at this track | 45 |
| Pole Position for this race | 22 |
| Season Rank prior to this race | 22 |
| TOTAL | 139 |
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Essentially, the driver would get 85 points for what he has previously accomplished at this track plus another 10 points for experience. That’s 95 total. He would get 22 for his pole position for this race and 22 based on how well he has been performing this season.
In the case of Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer and Mark Martin, here are their breakdowns by points.
| JJ | CE | CB | MM | |
| Experience at this track | 7 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| Wins+T5s+T10s+DNFs at this track | 119 | 38 | 33 | 19 |
| Average finish at this track | 72 | 41 | 61 | 60 |
| Pole Position for this race | 41 | 19 | 39 | 30 |
| Season Rank prior to this race | 41 | 39 | 28 | 31 |
| TOTAL POINTS | 279 | 141 | 164 | 148 |
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For a discussion about DNFs and the points I apply read this.