Brian's ButtonYesterday, I discussed the extreme difference between Bannister as a day pitcher versus a night pitcher. Later this afternoon, he will pitch. That should bode well since he’s 15-4 during the day. Of course, after my recent post about how the Royals had only allowed 10 runs in 6 games, I clearly jinxed them. In the three games since, they have allowed 12, 12 and 10… OUCH! Hopefully, I haven’t done the same for Banny today. I guess we’ll see. The purpose of this post is to examine – or at least compare his ERA in wins (1.31) to his ERA in losses (8.38). When I saw it, I knew it was disproportionate, I just didn’t know how much. And, if there is one thing about me… when I get a statistical itch, I have to scratch it.
Let’s begin by dividing the 8.38 by 1.31 to get a ratio (6.40). So, as I examine other pitchers, I want to see what their ratio is in comparison. Again, I looked at every starting pitcher in the majors this season who has started at least five games in 2009 with at least 30 decisions in his career. That’s 114 pitchers.
The pitcher with the lowest ratio is Jair Jurriens (Atlanta, 1.82) His ERA for wins is 2.47 and his ERA for losses is 4.50 (4.50/2.47=1.82). If that seems like a semi-wide disparity, it’s the best out of 114 pitchers. The facts are that there is typically a huge difference in the average ERA for wins versus losses. So, now we know where the low end is.
One would probably assume that the more games pitched, the lower the ratio (on average). If you only pitched two games and you won 2-1 and lost 9-4, you can see you might have a 9.00 ratio (9/1). The more wins you have, the fewer of them will be allowing only 1 run. The more losses you have, the fewer of them will be allowing 9 runs.
The low ratio was 1.68, the average is 3.48 and the high is 6.48. Bannister is actually #2 at 6.40. Here are the 15 pitchers with the highest ratio. Also shown is the total number of decisions.
| Win | Loss | ||||
| Pitcher | Team | Dec. | ERA | ERA | Ratio |
| Hill | Baltimore | 38 | 1.48 | 9.60 | 6.48 |
| Bannister | Kansas City | 57 | 1.31 | 8.38 | 6.40 |
| Gaudin | San Diego | 61 | 1.60 | 8.70 | 5.44 |
| Miller | Florida | 32 | 1.60 | 8.38 | 5.24 |
| McCarthy | Texas | 40 | 1.66 | 8.56 | 5.17 |
| Lariano | Minnesota | 38 | 1.57 | 8.66 | 5.16 |
| Young | San Diego | 80 | 1.65 | 8.26 | 5.01 |
| Garza | Tampa Bay | 49 | 1.24 | 6.17 | 4.98 |
| de la Rosa | Colorado | 65 | 1.95 | 9.53 | 4.89 |
| Sowers | Cleveland | 36 | 1.73 | 8.40 | 4.86 |
| Greinke | Kansas City | 80 | 1.50 | 7.25 | 4.83 |
| Verlander | Detroit | 90 | 1.77 | 8.47 | 4.79 |
| Contreras | Chicago WS | 122 | 1.86 | 8.60 | 4.62 |
| Perez | NY Mets | 118 | 1.80 | 8.29 | 4.61 |
| Bedard | Seattle | 91 | 1.68 | 7.61 | 4.53 |
| Sanders | LA Angels | 58 | 1.99 | 9.00 | 4.52 |
| Lester | Boston | 45 | 1.81 | 8.15 | 4.50 |
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As you can see, Bannister is #2. However, suppose we look only at those pitchers who have 57 or more decisions. This is what that list looks like now.
| Win | Loss | ||||
| Pitcher | Team | Dec. | ERA | ERA | Ratio |
| Bannister | KC | 57 | 1.31 | 8.38 | 6.40 |
| Gaudin | SD | 61 | 1.60 | 8.70 | 5.44 |
| Young | SD | 80 | 1.65 | 8.26 | 5.01 |
| de la Rosa | Col | 65 | 1.95 | 9.53 | 4.89 |
| Greinke | KC | 80 | 1.50 | 7.25 | 4.83 |
| Verlander | Det | 90 | 1.77 | 8.47 | 4.79 |
| Contreras | Chi WS | 122 | 1.86 | 8.60 | 4.62 |
| Perez | NY Mets | 118 | 1.80 | 8.29 | 4.61 |
| Bedard | Sea | 91 | 1.68 | 7.61 | 4.53 |
| Sanders | LAAngels | 58 | 1.99 | 9.00 | 4.52 |
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Just as in the Day vs Night, Bannister dominates this list as well.
I couldn’t answer why he is so disproportionately effective in the sunlight versus the moonlight in my previous post and I can’t tell you why he is so disproportionately effective in wins versus losses. It’s just the nature of his pitching style … apparently – though Grienke apparently has a little bit of Bannyitis in him as well – at least with respect to this category.
Clearly, in this case, Bannister has a lot of great games and a lot of horrible games. Not much in between. Why would that be true? Well, part of it is surely due to the day/night issue. He wins during the day and he’s very effective. He loses at night and he’s very ineffective. But, no matter how you try to evaluate him – apart from breaking down every at bat – which somebody, somewhere could do (and that somebody ain’t me!!!!) – you’re going to be left to speculate on the reasons.
It’s obvious there is no pitcher in the MLB today who is as inconsistently good vs bad as Bannister. Whether that trait remains with him in the years to come is hard to say. One would presume that it would taper off somewhat, but not necessarily.
Hopefully, he will keep the daytime trend going later this afternoon and a win will be with an ERA of 1.31 or better. Of course, if he does lose, his 8.38 ERA could cause the Royals to allow double-digit runs four games in a row. That’s unlikely. But, keep in mind, if we do allow 10 runs, it will tie us for the 8th worst four-game stretch in Royals history.
In college baseball, the weekend series are always the big series - your conference games and games against out of conference rivals. And so the three best starters just become the Friday guy, the Saturday guy, and the Sunday guy.
So could we make Banny the Sunday guy? Almost all of the games are in the day on Sunday. You would need to use a long reliever as a spot starter from time to time when there wasn't an off day, sort of the way the fifth starter was used during the transition from four to five man rotations.
We have an inexplicable comparative advantage. But who cares why if we can exploit it somehow.