Big 12 BaseballI’ve been following KU during the past several weeks, but as I type this, the battle for first in the Big 12 could still go to any of six schools. It’s a remarkably close race – everything considered. I’ve maintained that KU is better than their record, so I consider their chances to be better than it would appear on the surface. Fortunately, for them, they play three of their final six games against Missouri and three against Kansas State.
I thought it might be helpful to list the top six schools, their Big 12 record and their remaining Big 12 schedule. As you can see, the six contenders play each other a lot.
| Texas | 15-8-1 | A&M 3 |
| K-State | 12-7-1 | KU 3, TxT 3 |
| TxA&M | 13-8 | TX 3, OU 3 |
| MU | 14-10 | KU 3 |
| KU | 12-9 | MU 3, KSU 3 |
| OU | 12-9 | OSU 3, A&M 3 |
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There are still so many permutations, that it would ludicrous to try to list them all. However, I can say a couple things. If you assume winning two out of each three remaining games is a reasonable goal, then both KU and MU would require Texas to go 0-3. K-State would require Texas to go 1-2.
Of course, it is possible that any of the three area schools could do better than 2 out of 3, however I think it’s optimistic in the first place to hope for 67% against these opponents – especially for KU.
Also, if Texas does that poorly, that means A&M goes either 3-0 or 2-1 versus the Longhorns. And, that means A&M has to lose disproportionately against Oklahoma. Finally, it means OU has to suffer a couple losses against OSU.
The point is that even based on a 4-2 record for KU or KSU … or a 2-1 for MU, it will be very difficult for all the pieces to fall into place in order to win the Big 12. Not impossible, but very tough.
The best chance all three have is to win a higher percentage than 67%. If they do that, they drastically improve their odds. Fortunately for everyone else, they have to play a tough team (A&M) to close the deal.
Of course, the most important games will be the conference tournament which starts May 20th.
By the way, K-State was picked next to last in the preseason coaches’ poll and KU was picked last. Hum.
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